The Leyvas video was taken to the south of the event. If you take about 30 seconds to analyze TXnMA's graphics, you will see that the picture you posted supports the fact that the track is inbound.
That is interesting. Gil Leyvas position was well to the north of UPS902's scheduled flight path. It was even to the north of Catalina Island. He also categorically stated that he thought he saw the contrail of UPS902 far to the south of what he was taping and where he was.
He (Gil Leyvas) thinks it was far out to sea, behind/northwest of UPS902. He does believe he saw UPS902 far to the south of the object he was viewing, because he specifically compared that contrail, which was obviously a jet liner, to this object, which was NOT obviously a jet liner.
If your argument holds up then we can eliminate UPS902 completely from any further speculations.