Pawlenty impresses Iowans on substance; Group backtracks on Huckabee commitment

TheIowaRepublican.com ^ | 2/8/2012 | Kevin Hall

[bigred08]

Tim Pawlenty said all the right things during the inaugural “Presidential Lecture Series” event sponsored by The FAMiLY Leader. A crowd of 150 attendees, plus a dozen media members, gathered at Pella Christian High School early Monday afternoon to listen to the former Minnesota governor. The crowd liked what they heard, but was not blown away by Pawlenty’s delivery.

If elections were won only on substance, Pawlenty would stand a strong chance in the 2012 Iowa Caucus. However, style matters too. Oratorical skills propelled Barack Obama to the White House in 2008. Pawlenty will need to become a more passionate speaker as the campaign moves forward. He possesses an everyman quality that could endear him to caucus goers, but lacks the soaring rhetoric of Obama, folksy humor of Mike Huckabee, and fiery charisma of Chris Christie.

[The Pack Knight]

Like I said elsewhere on this thread, I like everything I've seen from McDonnell so far, but I think he probably needs another four years as Governor under his belt before he's a truly credible Presidential candidate.

That said, I'm starting to realize that I'm saying "It's too early" for a lot of potential candidates that I'm genuinely impressed with. At the same time, I am mightily unimpressed with the pool of potential candidates who are "ready now". Now, that may be because these relative newcomers haven't yet had to actually govern for very long, with everything that entails, but I've also noticed that many of them are showing a lot better polish, political acumen, and grasp of the issues than are many of the more experienced candidates.

It doesn't look like I'm the only one thinking this, either. A recent article in Politico reported, "It’s almost as though there is more excitement over the deep pool of [GOP] vice presidential prospects than over the emerging roster of presidential candidates."

While I would normally find it both foolish and distasteful for someone to begin running for President less than two years after being elected Governor, this might just be the year to make an exception. Sometimes talent makes up for lack of experience better than experience makes up for lack of talent.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

Making a commitment to anybody at this stage of the game is stupid.

Hey, I'm with you. I'm involved with all this and I don't have a clue where I'll end up at the Straw Poll or the caucus next Feb. It's wide open as far as I'm concerned.

The one thing I do know with 100% certainty is that whichever Republican ends up with the nomination, will have my vote when it comes to choosing between our nominee and Obama!!

[Opinionated Blowhard]

Corn farmers are a large voting block. Pushing ethanol was a one issue dealbreaker for most of them

That, sadly, is a great example of why we will never get spending under control. Every voting block has a spending or regulatory "deal breaker" and most politicians do not have the skill or will to override them.

[MacMattico]

I like Tim Pawlenty. I think he is “conservative enough”, if that's the standard some are using. I've heard him speak and he seems down to earth. Was elected twice Governor of a state it would be great if the GOP could win. I know this isn't a great reason, but he's good looking, and to bubble brained Independents, that can make all the difference. You can see him a lot on Greta, because she's from Wisconsin and I think she likes promoting these mid-westerners. I'm not saying I'm all for him just yet, but I haven't seen anything disqualifying in my book.

[OldDeckHand]

'I like everything I've seen from McDonnell so far, but I think he probably needs another four years as Governor "

This is where McDonnell is at a bit of a disadvantage. He's constrained by VA's established term limits for Governor, which prohibits a person from serving consecutive terms. Kind of stupid, I know. I think he can sit out a term, and then run again. But at that point, what's the benefit?

He's either going to have to challenge Webb in 2012 (with a year left on his original gubernatorial term, which won't go over well), or he'll have to wait until Warner is up for reelection in 2014 (I think).

[MacMattico]

I'm with you in that whoever the nominee is gets my vote. Nothing could be worse then Obama!

But I don't think it's to early to find a candidate, there's a lot of money to be raised and planning to be done. My dad started promoting Reagan on the East Coast in the 1960’s!

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

Do you have a favorite? I know who I don't want but I want the most conservative I can get who will take out Obama and I don't necessarily think we have to choose a "moderate" to defeat Obama.

Likability can go a long way.

[The Pack Knight]

Trump certainly has that problem as well. Some of that is probably due to the fact that most of his extensive business interests are in solidly “blue” states, so it is in his interest to be on friendly terms with Democrat politicians. The rest is due to the fact that, while he takes conservative positions on a lot of issues, he is certainly not what one would call an orthodox conservative or a Republican partisan.

It should be noted that, according to the data at your link, he has given a substantial amount to Republican candidates (there is an asterisk next to the amount of his total Republican donations, though I don’t know what that means). Also, he has given more money to “Special Interests” - i.e. “non-partisan” groups - than he has to Democrats, and almost all of those donations appear to be to conservative groups that in turn contribute to Republican campaigns.

Those Newsmeat breakdowns can be misleading. For example, if someone gave all of his donations to Sarah PAC, that pie chart would read 0% for “Republicans”, and 100% for “Special Interests”.

All that said, what I said was meant as an evaluation of his potential candidacy, not as an endorsement of it. Trump certainly isn’t my ideal candidate by any means (his apparent support of increased gun control is a serious problem for me); I just think he would be an interesting addition to the race, and that he might bring some refreshing perspective to the debate on economic issues.

[Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!]

Rudy is testing the waters.

http://gop12.thehill.com/2011/02/giuliani-scoping-out-new-hampshire.html

[The Pack Knight]

I wasn't aware of that. No wonder Virginia has so many ex-governors who are still active in politics.

Running against Warner in 2014 is probably the most logical move for him, perhaps with a view to running for President in 2016 if there is no Republican incumbent running. Some people might not like him running for a new job after only two years in the Senate, but by then he will have served Virginia in public office for 22 years - hardly the Obama fast track.

Unfortunately, guys like McDonnell show that our Presidential field kind of looks like the Cleveland Indians right now - deep farm system, but a Big League squad in the middle of a rebuilding cycle.

[upcountryhorseman]

I could vote for Pawlenty, but Huckabee is a RINO!

[NavVet]

Pawlenty, Huckabee, Romney and Gingrich will split the RINO vote four ways.

[MillardFillmore]

Thanks Toast. I’m not familiar with Pawlenty. You make good points-people do learn from the past—nobody is good on all issues. An in-your face conservative who pisses off independents will have trouble getting elected. However being old and or boring (a la Bob Dole) won’t work either. A lot of voters just choose who ever they’d want to sleep with or drink a beer with. Maybe we need a good-looking non-boring “stealth” conservative (whoever that is?)

[Friendofgeorge]

Sarah Palin is my choice

[Friendofgeorge]

Sarah Palin is my choice

[ejdrapes]

Thanks for this reply toast. I'm from MN too and I really like Pawlenty. I heard him speak in New Hampshire and Iowa last year and he was very good, and the crowd really liked what they heard. I think the fact he's VERY religious and VERY pro-life are big plusses for him, and one of the reasons I'm drawn to him.

[MacMattico]

I agree with that. I don't really have a favorite, but I wish I did. What I mean by that is no one jumps out at me and says definitively, “I am your candidate”. Yet. I like a lot of different characteristics of several individuals— I wish I could put those characteristics together into one! I am at the point where I would vote for just about any Republican candidate because I think that to have survived the primary, with a motivated tea party vote, there is no way that individual could be worse then Obama and his entourage of socialist, communist and uber- liberal czars and department heads. I also want to be realistic and want someone to run that is electable. So at this point in time, I guess I am personally looking for a candidate that has the foreign policy know how of a John Bolten, the likability and executive experience of a Tim Pawlenty, the ba**s of a Chris Christie and a Sarah Palin (I say this as a woman), the historical knowledge of a Newt Gingrich, I like David Patraeus; I even think Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Bobby Jindal and Romney to an extent have things going for them, although maybe not my first choice.

I'll just throw this one out there : Pawlenty/Bolten ‘12?

[okie01]

...considering how Iowa swooned over Obama and launched his campaign, I have no confidence in their judgement...Republican or Democrat.

Iowa Republicans don't "swoon". Over Obama...or anybody else.

[Notary Sojac]

Truman was responsible foe many of the failures, including in the Plilippines (sp),

When we invaded the Philippines, Truman was a senator from Missouri, campaigning to be elected VP.

Either Mac and Nimitz called a Missouri senator to receive their strategy directives, or, you fail history.

[cornfedcowboy]

Huckabee is not running. He needs to once again do well in Iowa if he wants to get the nomination. He is not forming an organization or staff in Iowa. Also interesting, Palin is not organizinfg either.