Posted on 08/30/2011 12:07:30 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze
Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012
By Paul Bedard , Lauren Fox
Posted: August 30, 2011 Print
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Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.
Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
Yep, he is full of sh*t. People I trust who’ve been right more than wrong...see him gone...maybe, even before the election.
He loses CO and MI IMHO.
There will be massive voter fraud on a scale here-to-fore unheard of in this country. A media totally on his side, "Booming" him twenty four hours a day. Large blocs of voters, blacks, Jews, Mexicans, Asians, Homosexuals and soon to be added Felons all totally committed to "Him". His incumbency. A billion dollar political war chest. Black thugs at critical polling places before whom hundreds of effete prospective white voters will flee in abject terror. A badly divided Republican party. A probable last minute Third Party candidate who will draw away millions of votes, like Ross Perot. (He will be paid off later!)
Lastly, any population who voted for this imbecile the first time is finished historically as a "People." Absent a miracle We have lost it beyond recovery!
BO can do none of these things.
I looked to see his track record whom he claims hasn’t missed since Reagan...there is nothing I could find to back up this claim.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman
BIG moonbat it seems. Not convinced yet?:
This ‘pundit’ is misreading his own keys!
Party Mandate? The Dems lost the House at the midterm. What is this guy smoking? Obama loses-
“Short term economy”? The economy is a mess! He calls this undecided? People are buying gold like it is.. well, real money. Banks are charging fees to large cash contributions... - He is shooting smack!
“There is no sustained social unrest during the term.” Excuse me? Has he been to Wisconsin? Has he seen the protests the left is preparing for Wall Street? He is toking lots of weed!
“Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.” ...Cough cough... Gunwalker? Libya? Egypt? British Petroleum? Sestak? JournoList? Czars? Berwick? Obamacare? Van Jones? The Beer Summit? Golf, Government Motors, Gibson Guitars anyone?
Millitary Duccess? Cuz he killed Bin Ladin? Say what? Failed in every way you can as the CIC and that’s all he’s got? What’s this guy drinking?
“Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.” Oh, I think a two term governor of Texas former jet fighter pilot might disagree.
...........
I think I am going to be ill
LOL! Is that a real billboard? Where is it?
I agree, I called every election for the winner since Reagan’s reelection. That’s when I learned to just absorb the ambiance, ignore the polls and listen to my gut.
This is meaningless hype. Obama is going down. He’s going to be written off as a failed experiment. We’re Conservatives, so it is natural for us to loathe the man and detest what he has done to the country. But the real key is the attitude of the Independents.
They don’t really dislike Obama, but they are tired of him. They’re tired of his fat-a$$ed nagging wife with a face that scares babies, and they’re tired of his ineffectual fumbling with the levers of government.
They’ve had enough of socialism and want an American as President again.
I still think the unions will steal Michigan for him. The poor schmucks in the U.P. and along lake Michigan have been disenfranchised for 60 years. And Colorado has gone batty in the last few years. Too many Californians (Nevada too, but I think their unemployment rate will sink Obama even in Clark County.)
So I guess he is admitting that Bush II was elected not ‘selected’ against algore. Ha ha.
What a macaroon - he interprets half of his criteria backwards:
4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point. - Because he’s got almost all the blacks and almost all the loon-fringe lefties in his back pocket (ca. one third of the electorate) a third party candidacy almost certainly *helps* Obama.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” - yeah, right, the economy will be just fine a year from now.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.] - Obama loses? The economy has been such a freaking disaster since Obama took over that even the liberals have noticed.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. - Someone forgot to point out to this pinhead pundit that the majority of the country has hated the healthcare overhaul ever since it was muscled through Congress. I guess he was asleep during the 2010 elections.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. - Somebody needs to introduce this moron to a flashmob. Or union thugs in Wisconsin. And just wait until next summer after inner city unemployment has had another year to simmer.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win. - I actually have to agree with the jackoff on this one, but only because the MSM continues to bury Fast and Furious, Holder’s “Justice” Department, the never-ending series of illegal alien Obama relatives, etc.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. - As I listen to the radio while typing this: “August saw the largest number of military deaths in Afghanistan...” Iran has been a towering success, right? And just wait until the spit hits the fan with the “Arab Spring”...
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key. - How can anyone downplay Obama’s single-handed round-up of Osama - the bump on that one lasted , what, three weeks?
“Never-Wrong Pundit” - contradiction in terms.
I know. And so will this pundit’s prediction will be proven wrong in 2012.
Obama WH adds position to deal with bad press online
The more McCain speaks out, since his re-election, it is obvious he is a progressive. He did not fight to be president, actually helped the media protect Obama.
1984 - 50% probability - 50 out of 100 “chickens” would get it right.
1988 - 25% probability - 25 out of 100.
1992 - 12.5% probability.
1996 - 6.25%
2000 - 3.125%
2004 - 1.0625%
2008 - 0.53125%. So a 50% chance that one “chicken” would have guessed all of these correctly.
When you factor in the races that were not close, and were not going to be close - as we are not chickens picking randomly - the sagacity of our prognosticator is hardly well established.
My father had a 100% accurate track record in picking who was going to win Presidential elections from before 1984 even ......
But he got it wrong with 0bama - he thought McCain was going to win.
So much for his record!
Also, the 300,000 or so folks slated for deportation who are getting work permits will soon have their voter registration cards, just in time.
Unions, Young Black Panthers, Acorns (or whatever their new name is), etc., have been honing their Art of War, while Tea Partiers and Christians (real ones, not the Emergent ones) have been labelled "terrrorists," and have been busy keeping their families afloat, not power-organizing, and all that needs to be done to combat the Progressive Establishment.
I hope you're correct on that gut feeling!
Doesn't it matter that the policy change was voted in without discussion or popular support?
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.
Doesn't the Tea Party count? Admittedly, our social unrest is more civilized than their civil unrest, but it's still unrest.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
Obama's election was a scandal in itself!
The social unrest I was thinking about is the black flash mobs and union thugs running wild. The Tea Party isn’t “unrest.” It’s a peaceful political reaction to address grievances and restore logical fiscal values.
They even leave their demonstration sites cleaner and better looking than before they came.
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