Posted on 09/16/2011 11:23:42 AM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry was the Republican frontrunner and held a modest lead in a hypothetical matchup against President Obama. Perry was the target for all the other candidates in the two most recent GOP debates, however, and he now trails the president by single digits.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Obama picking up 46% of the vote, while Perry earns support from 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) are either undecided or prefer another candidate. Two weeks ago, Perry was up by three. Three weeks ago, the president held a three-point edge over the governor. (To see question wording, click here.)
Now, Perry’s chief rival for the nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, holds a three-point lead on the president. Another GOP hopeful, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, trails Obama by double digits. The fluctuation in Perry's, Romney's and Bachmann’s numbers comes as a Generic Republican maintains a steady lead over the president.
The president’s Job Approval ratings remain consistently in the low-to-mid 40s. As the election draws closer, Obama’s Job Approval will provide a good indication of his likely vote total. If his Job Approval rating is over 50% in November 2012, it will be difficult for any Republican to beat him. If his ratings move into the low 40s or below, it will be difficult for the president to win unless there is a major third-party candidate in the mix.
Perceptions of the economy are likely to play a significant role in shaping the president’s Job Approval ratings. Currently, Americans say their own finances are weaker than the day Obama took office and significantly weaker than in the fall of 2008.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 14-15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Obama 46% Perry 39% Sep 14-15, 2011
Obama 46% Bachmann 33% Sep 12-13, 2011
Obama 40% Romney 43% Sep 10-11, 2011
Obama 39% Paul 38% Aug 15-16, 2011
Obama 50% Palin 33% Aug 11-12, 2011
Obama 42% Cain 35% Aug 23-24, 2011
Obama 48% Gingrich 30% June 24-25, 2011
Obama 44% Huntsman 28% July 2, 2011
Obama 45% Santorum 31% July 10-11, 2011
Perry trails Obama by 15 percentage points among women and barely leads among men. Perry trails among voters under 40, runs even among 40-somethings and leads among those 50 and older. It’s worth remembering that most voters over 40 voted against Obama in 2008.
Perry currently attracts just 71% of the Republican vote, while the president wins 85% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either party, the race is a toss-up.
In the race for the Republican nomination nationally, the latest national polling shows Perry on top followed by Romney and Bachmann. In Iowa, Perry is also ahead of his GOP rivals.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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You're right.
A very real difference between President Bush and Governor Perry is that Perry has never claimed to be a “uniter.” I still love President Bush, because I believe he had the right ideas and ideology. However, he got into trouble over and over with spending and programs like No Child Left Behind because he thought he could get “them” to like him.
Governor Perry knows how to make a deal, but he will not bend in order to avoid being disliked.
Hey, any compliment at all from onyx, is enough to put a skip in anybodies step :)
I just want Obama beat.
Me too and i talk to tons of people. Perry rubs a lot of people the wrong way.
And you think that is perry?
I mean no disrespect Charles, but your opinion is irrelevant to this issue. I was responding to a Perry supporter's assertion that Perry had never said SS was unconstitutional (see post#56). And in that context I provided a quote from Slick Rick that proves he did.
The establishment GOP is in the tank for Mittens...so you'd see skewed numbers like this. When in fact, Perry's numbers are probably above Obama's and Mittens numbers are below Perry's numbers.
Romney and Perry are the same.
I prefer Bachmann or Cain to be honest, but would vote for charles manson over obama at this point.
WUT?
You’re too kind (and silly)....LOL.
I love all of your posts!
So there!
“It’s dangerous to a national political career to talk about the Social Security issue.”
I don’t think the “Social Security” issue is what brought his numbers down. I suspect it is that the “new” to his candidacy has worn off.
At this point, I wouldn’t even attempt to predict how the GOP primary is going to shake out. I don’t see a consistently solid front runner...just a few that “poll” the most. IF Sarah Palin enters, I will be curious to see if it will change things.
I NEVER thought I would say this, but Newt is starting to look good to me. He seems to be the most level headed and statesman like in every debate I have seen. The baggage of his personal life is terrible, but of the current field I like several candidate and dislike several...but when I honestly think about it....he is the only one I really believe has the “gravitas” to be an effective POTUS. It amazes me that I am saying that.....
I agree with your assessment of Newt in the debates to date and with your concern for his personal baggage. It all makes for tough choices.
Obama has no chance: Check out 270towin.com and thanks for playing. Obama is toast and cannot even cheat enough to win. However, we should run like we are 10 points behind even though Obama will be hard pressed to get 220 Electoral votes.
Good strategy if you want to help Obama.
270towin.com
I flipped the following states from Blue to Red (Dem to GOP)
To me, these seem to be certain flips
Florida
North Carolina
Virgina
Indiana
Nevada
That leaves Obama up 285-253
Then some interesting choices out there
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Colorado
Ohio is the obvious one. Seems to be trending red again. If you add Ohio, then GOP wins 271-267, without getting anything else out there.
But there are ways to win without Ohio
Among them: Pennsylvania state legislature and Republican Gov. adopt plan to switch electoral votes from winner-take-all to a plan that gives a candidate 1 electoral vote for each congressional district won.
So lets go back to a non-Ohio scenario, in which Obama wins
285-253
If GOP splits the 20 in Pennsylvania, then that’s Obama winning, 275-263
So — excluding Ohio — that leaves Wisconsin and Colorado.
Either of those flipping, even without Ohio, gives the GOP a win — so long as Pennsylvania vote goes through and you get that hypothetical split of the 20 EVs in Pennsylvania
By next Labor Day, if the economy stays roughly where it is — 9 percent or more jobless rate, endless drifting with little progress in creating new jobs — the president is one and done.
The last unemployment report before the election will be Nov. 2, just 4 days before people vote. So there could be one last major dose of bad news to send Obama to his political doom.
The big caveat: FDR won re-election twice , in 1936 and 1940, before the war started — even with virtually no progress on improving the jobless rate.
Any challenger will have an uphill battle to unseat an incumbent. Even Ronald Reagan did. Carter only knew the Saturday before the election that he was toast. Until then, Reagan typically had a tiny lead, 1-3 points, but close to the margin of error. That became a landslide only in the final days.
-George
That is an interesting tool which really helped me to know Obama has no chance. I think the Repubs are starting with the 2004 model and will build from there. I do not see Obama getting over 220 no matter who they choose. Obama has a bill but now is tied up with scandal you cannot make this stuff up. Anyway no candidate the Repub choose will lose any state McCain carried and it will get better from there on.
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