Correction, I had the latest Gingrich/Paul data messed up
I'd LOVE to see Gingrich over-take Perry... and he is almost there!
(...on a 4-poll weighted rolling average basis)
The momentum of Cain and Gingrich are both very encouraging.
Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, the following chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20 polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com.
I also weighted these polls by their size. For example, poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.
This charting method shows that not only is Herman Cain (at a 4-poll weighted average of 27.1%) ahead of Romney's (25.5%), but he has not peaked yet. He is still climbing!
4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20 Polls listed at RCP
Here is a table showing the LAST 3 sets of data points in that chart...
WEIGHTED Average Polling Data
Rasm = last 4polls [ Reut NBC PPP Rasm ]
PPP = prior 4polls [ WP/B Reut NBC PPP ]
WP/B = prior 4polls [ Gall WP/B Reut NBC ]
...etc
| Poll |
Date |
Sample |
Romney |
Cain |
Perry |
Gingrich |
Paul |
Bachmann |
Santorum |
Huntsman |
Spread |
| Latest 4 Polls |
10/6 - 10/12 |
2230 |
25.5% |
27.1% |
11.3% |
10.2% |
7.4% |
4.6% |
1.4% |
2.2% |
Cain +1.6 |
| Prior 4 polls |
10/6 - 10/10 |
1621 |
22.9% |
23.2% |
13.2% |
8.6% |
8.5% |
4.8% |
1.0% |
1.7% |
Cain +0.3 |
| Prior 4 polls |
10/3 - 10/10 |
2161 |
21.8% |
19.2% |
13.8% |
6.4% |
9.1% |
4.8% |
1.9% |
1.8% |
Romney +2.6 |
|
Honestly of this herd, I’d probably take Gingrich... though I would really like to see someone else in the race... Cain is interesting, but not sure he’s got what it takes to win an election, I kind of see him getting the tea party folks who all glommed onto Perry only to find out he wasn’t remotely fully baked.. now they have jumped to Cain.. I personally am not convinced he’s fully baked either.
Newt’s got his past and deamons, but we know what they are, and I don’t know if enough time has passed that he could overcome the negativity of his past vilifications, but maybe it has. There is definitely an “ANYONE BUT ROMNEY” segment, and I count myself amont them, but I am not sold or enthusiastic about any of the offerings currently.
I’d really not have to be forced to vote for “Obama Light” come election day, and if Romney is the canidate that is the only option.. Romper Room or Romper Room Light. Now yes I know Romney is not Obama in terms of his arrogance or personality, and certainly not an ideological socialist like Obama, but he sure as hell is not a fundamental conservative, or remotely close, and has shown that while he may have an R beside his name, and may have conservative philosophies in some areas, he will govern from a more leftest viewpoint that I want.