[sodpoodle]

From Wiki on Nate Silver (and he was Pablano at KOS)

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 0.9%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.
___________________________________________________
We should keep an eye on him;)

[mandaladon]

Frankly, I think it is quite arrogant to say that the man leading in the polls two months before Iowa has no chance, especially given that there is a long history in politics and other fields of experts being overconfident when they make predictions..................Arrogant like BOR, Rove, Hume and other liberals fools.

[fightinJAG]

I agree. A man smart enough to know what he doesn't know is worth watching.

I posted earlier that Silver seemed quite boxed in by his set understanding of what constituted campaign "fundamentals."

He actually was pretty open to the fact that he wasn't sure these old indicators still applied. What I meant, however, was he seemed stumped as to what new indicators were taking their place.

Some of the things I think will become the new non-polling fundamentals: direct fundraising (grassroots donations directly to the candidate's website); earned media appearances and views, including clips viewed and linked on the internet; talk radio mentions. For starters.