Problem is, if both Fielder and Pujols go elsewhere, at least one of them will probably end up with the Cubs.
If I had to bet, I’d say Pujols re-signs with the Cardinals, and Epstein will move quickly to pick up Fielder for the Cubs.
Pujols will want something like 10 years, $300 million to leave, which will be hard to justify for most teams for a guy who is already 30. Major injuries aside, he could certainly play until he’s 40, but not as an every day player in the NL. Any NL team that signs him to such a contract will get to look forward to trying to trade him to an AL team (which will certainly involve eating part of his contract) when he’s no longer able to play first base every day. $30 million a year is a tad much to pay a pinch hitter.
Signing Pujols is exactly the sort of move the Cubs hired Epstein to make, but history and common sense suggests that he’ll go for the younger (and relatively cheaper) Fielder. I’ve heard some talk that the Phillies might try to cut loose of Ryan Howard and sign Pujols, but I just don’t see it happening.
At the same time, Pujols has a lot of good reasons to stay in St. Louis, even if it means less money. He already lives there, all his charity work is there, and (most importantly since I think he really cares about this) his legacy is there. If he goes somewhere else, it will be looked at as a second career for him, and he’ll be expected to reproduce what he did in his 20s in order to not be seen as a failure. If he stays in St. Louis, it will all be seen as one big Hall-of-Fame career, even when he’s in his decline. Besides, history prefers the guys who stay with one team.
Perhaps Pujols will give STL a home town discount. I would suspect that its more likely than unlikely he stays in STL.