Posted on 11/20/2011 9:28:30 AM PST by TBBT
(Reuters) - Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich has roared into the lead of the Republican nominating race, brushing off concerns about his work for a troubled housing company, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.
Twenty-four percent of registered Republican voters would support the former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives if the contest were held now, an increase of 8 percentage points from roughly a week ago, according to the poll, which was conducted on November 18-19.
Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who has stayed near the top of most polls, garnered support from 22 percent of Republicans, slumping 6 percentage points from the last survey conducted on November 10-11 and ending up essentially tied with Gingrich.
Despite allegations of questionable business ties, Gingrich is the latest favorite of conservative Republicans eager for an alternative to Romney, whom they see as too moderate.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Are you MNJohnnie?
Great, no one has any problem with that. I don't care if people disagree with me, in fact I spend a lot of time here to learn from the comments of others. The problem with MNJohnnie is that when he is not posting endless spam, his comments are often nasty and filled with venom and invective towards others. It appears he is not even bothering to read anyone's replies and he keeps posting to #1 instead of the member(s) trying to communicate with him. All he has to do is learn how the forum works so he can post properly, stop posting the same spam over and over again and try be a little polite and no one will have any problems.
“MNJohnnie is a champion of conservatives....”
NOT in MY eyes. At this point, that dishonest craven lickspittle could have a bus load of nuns come on FR and swear he’s an alter boy and I wouldn’t believe it.
He/she/it has become damaged goods by it’s own hand, using directed disruption tactics, taradiddle, bald faced lies and personal insults.
Your opinion is crazy to me!
Nahhh...just a friend.
I’m sure he will see your post,but once again we have a common enemy and its not us. It’s the left.
Try reading and digesting the Abramoff Book brfore You pass judgement on me, You might shock yourself! Abramoff admits on the cover that he is the most notorious Lobbyist in Washington History! But as a Most Famous Conservative Author told me:
“We must be more afraid of the Unrepentant!”
Please do Yourself and America a favor before throwing rocks at me, Thank you for the honor!
Yes, in the end, it is up to US - We The People - to make the changes we know the country needs stick.
I honestly think Newt is the type that, once he’s in power, he WON’T be all that receptive to the conservative base. He also thinks he is the smartest person in the room.
I can’t recall him keeping on track, or getting back on track, until conservatives punished him by taking away something that was important to him, like the potential to win the presidency (his plummet in the polls just after he entered the race and tripped over basic conservative principles so badly).
I just don’t see how we’ll have any leverage on him were he to get in the White House as President. (As VP, his continued tenure would be dependent upon helping to make the President’s agenda successful, so there would be some built-in restraints there.)
The only time he’s walked back some of this crappola is when it was clear that conservatives were going to reject him completely IN A QUEST FOR OFFICE (i.e., power). He’ll have all the power he could ever possibly obtain if he became President.
That said, I’ll vote for him if he’s the nominee. And I do agree there’s a fair chance he *would* be a really good President.
Does anyone want to answer the question as to why they think Gingrich’s work for Freddie Mac can be brushed off as saying nothing about his political instincts?
Amen! Congrates to Jim Robinson for blowing the whistle on Newt, th e Con Artist immediately!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Newt Gingrich Loves and Cares about America almost or more than America’s Resident in Fraud terrorist of the current White House, Obama Hussein Obamma, who was born in Kenya, hates Britain and Hates America even worse! and is an Islam Sympathiser and Terrorist and wants to fundamantally DESTROY AMERICA with his associate Terrorists, William Ayers,David Axelshaft,and the entire corrupted Demorat Party along with Communists worldwide!.....:-(!!
Bushbots uniting to stop a conservative huh?
AMEN! I just finished Abramoff’s latest book at the recommendation of one of our most favorite Researchers and Authors! I couldn’t put it down, it should be required reading for every Conservative, Tea Party Member, and everyone that wants and prays t ofto Save Our Christian America as founded bt Our Forefathers from the attack of EVIL focused on destroying the Republic and the most Wonderful freedoms Citixens have experienced in Hunan History!!!! Bar None!!!! Please pray to GOD to Save Our Wonderful America!!! Amen....:-)!
Based on your tepid recomendation... I guess I’ll give it try.
It may sound a bit arrogant but I believe a lot of what happens from here on out will be at our doorstep. The New Media is going to carry the ball. Probably with fewer fumbles than anywhere else as well.
Another thing we have to keep in mind is that those around the President should also feel the heat regardless of the issue.
We currently have a Presidency that is run by the Presidents wife and her friend Valerie Jarrett.So what does the far left, the DNC do,they see to it that Bill Daley is installed to monitor the Dear Leader/Jarrett et all and try and keep the regime in check.
When we get in we will have dropped the ball if we don't install our own Bill Daley. It's doable, think about it.
People like this have enormous influence on events that are decided by Presidents especially in this particular regime where nothing is decided by this current potus.
| Reuters asked 1432 ONLINE persons who claim they are over 18 and live in America. Of that 1432 there would be 64.9% registered (per the census) or 930. Of that 930 registered voters, But Reuters says that 463 CLAIMED to be registered Republicans! It is no wonder that this poll and prior Reuters online polls looked like they were skewed with too many liberals lying about being Republican. There was another online poll taken almost the same dates, that is also inaccurate, but apparently for another reason. Zogby did separate their online 2064 likely voters into likely GOP voters, vs likely Dem voters, and seems to have done a good job with little crossover. I estimate based on the Obama 55% disapproval of these participants that they found about 1135 likely GOP voters. But of their likely GOP voters, it seems obvious they are polling too many hard-core conservatives, compared to the GOP-leaning population as a whole. Here are those two online polls side by side:
|
It was obvious to me that Reuters 'Republican data' included too many liberals lying to answer the GOP question.
It was also obvious to me that Zogby polled too many hard-core conservatives.
-Certainly Cain must be somewhere between 12 and 26 (probably closer to Reuter's 12), and
-Certainly Mitt must be somewhere between 14 and 22 (probably closer to Reuter's 22), and
-Certainly Newt must be somewhere between 24 and 32 (also likely closer to Reuter's 24).
I thought there should be some way to merge the two online polls to get something that balanced the two, and I also wanted to see how my end result might compare to the more legitimate national polls.
So I merged the Reuters and Zogby results with a patent-pending process of my own design. It took me a lot of fiddling to find a recipe that looked 'ok'. And I finally found one that seemed good enough for government work...
(3 parts Reuter result for every 1 part Zogby)
So here is my 'merged' result I call ReuZog, along with the Reuters and Zogby results:
I didn't want my merged 'poll' to swamp out other results so I give this a weighting of 283 (212 Reuters results plus 71 Zogby), as follows,
| Poll | Date | Sample | Gingrich | Romney | Cain | Perry | Paul |
| Reuters/Ipsos online | 11/18 - 11/19 | 423 RRV | 24 | 22 | 12 | 10 | est. 8 |
| Zogby online | 11/16 - 11/17 | 1135 LVgop | 32 | 14 | 26 | 6 | 8 |
| ReuZog (Reuters & Zogby) | 11/16 - 11/19 | 283 Lvgop | 26.0 | 20.0 | 15.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 |
SO THEN, here below, is my 'ReuZog' result along with other national polls, in a 4-poll weighted running averages chart...
|
I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.
Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20+ Polls |
26.0 20.0 15.5
These numbers seem strangely like the results of many polls in the past. IOW, regardless of which candidate polled which number, there seems to have been a strange sort of consistency in the top-tier numbers so far.
Am I right on that?
Has there been a fairly consistent range for the top three?
Seems to me we’re not getting close to coalescing around a candidate until the frontrunner breaks 30% and retains it and the third place candidate drops into maybe single digits. Just a thought.
Also it’s still pretty early into Newt’s surge as well as into Cain’s troubles.
Seems to me it will be a while longer before the polls reflect the settled views of both these candidates.
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