Posted on 11/30/2011 10:24:51 PM PST by Free ThinkerNY
CAIRO -- Islamists claimed a decisive victory Wednesday as early election results put them on track to win a dominant majority in Egypt's first Parliament since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak, the most significant step yet in the religious movement's rise since the start of the Arab Spring.
The party formed by the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's mainstream Islamist group, appeared to have taken about 40 percent of the vote, as expected. But a big surprise was the strong showing of ultraconservative Islamists, called Salafis, many of whom see most popular entertainment as sinful and reject women's participation in voting or public life.
Analysts in state-run media said early returns indicated that Salafi groups could take as much as quarter of the vote, giving the two groups of Islamists combined control of nearly 65 percent of the parliamentary seats.
That victory came at the expense of the liberal parties and youth activists who set off the revolution, affirming their fears that they would be unable to compete with Islamists who emerged from the Mubarak years organized and with an established following. Poorly organized and internally divided, the liberal parties could not compete with Islamists disciplined by decades as the sole opposition to Mr. Mubarak.
"We were washed out," said Shady el-Ghazaly Harb, one of the most politically active of the group.
(Excerpt) Read more at post-gazette.com ...
Wouldn’t surprise me either.
I think the military may be willing to give the newly-elected Salafists (kooks) a little bit of leeway, but if the Salafists overplay their hand (and I’m equally sure they will: when people get giddy with victory, they tend to do that) then it’s possible that the Egyptian military will put the kibosh on it.
At that point, the military can position itself as the guardians of a secular state (like Turkey), and ensure that the more hardcore Islamist elements are kept in the shadows, and out of Parliament.
Look, even in Turkey, no one in the AKP is saying let’s have sharia as the sole law of the land. AKP is fairly content with having a secular society, though in fairness they are mildly Islamist. Their overall tendency is to view religion as a private affair, though they have no objections to religion playing a part in the social and cultural life of Turkey. It’s a fine line to walk, to be sure, but it can be done.
Of course, the Turks regardless of ideology would love to see a new Ottoman Empire, to be sure. It’s dreaming, but they lack the practical requisites to turn into reality. I really don’t imagine the Arabs (the Ottomans former subjects) lining up in Istanbul begging for the Turks to take them over again. So, neo-Ottomanism is just a fantasy.
Though I wouldn’t mind it one bit if the Turks put the smackdown on Syria.
With regard to Egypt, most likely the newly minted Salafist parliamentarians will overplay their hand, and get their hand cut off for their troubles. Whether it’s the military that curbs their power, or massive protests once again by the more secular Egyptians, a purely Salafist government will badly divide Egyptian society. Extremists always over-reach.
That victory came at the expense of the liberal parties and youth activists who set off the revolution....
Totally a surprise.
Plus also if Israel’s military does military excercises, as a just in case “prep”, that may also send a message to the Egyptian military to “clamp down” on any Islamofacist troublemakers.
A good possibility.
I’m reasonably sure the Egyptian military is of no mind to upset the regional applecart in any significant way.
What I’d like to see; the Egyptian military high command pulls a Turkey.....in other words, a public declaration that they consider themselves the penultimate guarantors of a secular and democratic Egyptian state.
Heh.....the Salafists would need a change of underwear after hearing something like that. It would be a good preemptive move on the part of the Egyptian military as well. A simple move like that could prevent a good many problems from arising in the future.
One man, one vote, one time.
Yep, and believe me, they want NO PROBLEMS that could end up causing a very, very concerned neighbor to hand over to the Egyptians their rear ends.
“All politics is loco!”
Tipardo O'Neill D. Mass
....If Israel does not hand over to these Egyptians their “rear ends” first because the tried to “provoke” any trouble, coming from the Egyptian side.
That paradigm done shifted, AAA. Today in Turkey, it is the islamists who have put the generals in prison or fired them. As in Turkey, the Egyptian military is riddled with Islamists. There will be no secular military coup in Turkey or Egypt (or Libya, Tunisia, etc) against the islamists. That ship has sailed. Time to update your models to the new reality.
To rour response # 30: AMEN!!!
Yep, the Arab spring has sprung and the blossoms ain't pretty. Bitter fruit is coming.
What remains to be seen is if the Caliph will have his capital in Ankara, Cairo or Tehran.
There will be a general war between the islamic ummah and the West within 2 years, probably starting with a missile war against Israel. Europe will be at war, not a true civil war, but a war between Europeans and the islamic 5th column. Ethnic cleansing and massacres will be rampant. Scenes like Smyrna 1922 will be repeated. The Copts and other minorities will be “deported” to the deserts like the Armenians in Turkey in 1915. It will be ugly beyond measure.
The caliphate will bear only bitter fruit. But it may bring the end of islam in our lifetime. It's a classic case of strategic overreach by a movement that can't survive without outside help, primarily food deliveries. The West can live without ME oil for a while. The ME literally cannot live without massive food imports.
(This is the hypothetical background of my 5th novel, now in the writing.)
“We're going to find out, sooner or later, if Abdul will pray, to a glowing crater.”
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