Gingrich, Paul Virtually Tied for First Place in Iowa (PPP POLL: Newt-22, Paul-21, Mitt - 16)

The Corner ^ | 12/13/2011 | Katrina Trinko

[TBBT]

Results from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling poll of likely GOP caucus goers: Newt Gingrich (22 percent), Ron Paul (21 percent), Mitt Romney (16 percent), Michele Bachmann (11 percent), Rick Perry (9 percent), Rick Santorum (8 percent), Jon Huntsman (5 percent), and Gary Johnson (1 percent). The poll’s margin of error is 4.2 percentage points.

Down in the weeds, PPP notices a couple of factors that might be contributing to these numbers:

He’s [Gingrich] also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he’s now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%. Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31).

[US Navy Vet]

Remember PaulBots are NATORIOUS “Ballot-Box-Stuffers”!

[COgamer]

Not one vote has been cast. Maybe folks should worry about supporting a strong conservative candidate rather than bandwagoning behind whoever is winning this weeks popularity contest.

Then, when an actual nominee seems to be emerging we can decide who to rally behind.

[tallyhoe]

The Democrats love Paul. He is more like them than a conservative!!!

[ThinkingBuddha]

Then you're an idiot.

Name calling is the refuge of people who cant have a discussion, or elaborate their own thoughts.

[TBBT]

Note: This is the result of weekend polling.

[Fred]

Could this be why Paul is rising in the polls? On air in Iowa.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRdqGKA782A&feature=youtube_gdata_player

The IA race is now hand to hand. If you want Newt to win then you all better get you butts off of the net and go to IA...

[InterceptPoint]

I have been saying for some time that Ron Paul has an excellent chance of winning in Iowa. It will be his first and last win, it will hurt Newt some but the worst effect will be to encourage this tired old man to run as a third party candidate. He certainly has the ability to pull 5% or more of the GOP vote to himself. That is likely to be the difference between an Obama defeat and an Obama victory.

[jakerobins]

How many would stay home if Paul got the Nomination? Paul is who he is...not a Conservative but he’s not a Big Gov’t Progressive either. So if it was between Ron Paul or Mitt Romney or having 4 more years of Barry......

[ThinkingBuddha]

You do realize Ron Paul isn’t a conservative either, don’t you?

His conservative credentials are better than Newt or Mitch; just compare their records.

Lets be realistic, true conservatives like Bachmann or Rick don't have a chance due to the establishment. In a contest between Newt, Mitch and Ron, Ron has the most conservative record.

[Republican Wildcat]

Name calling is the refuge of people who cant have a discussion, or elaborate their own thoughts.

Perhaps...but voting for 9/11 truth, Code Pink aligned candidates doesn't make a great deal of sense either.

[DarthVader]

Yeah this is real conservative isn’t it:

http://www.onenewsnow.com/Politics/Default.aspx?id=1495202

[PAConservative1]

This is what happens when people treat Paul as the “lovable oaf” on the debate stage and don’t give him any serious criticism.

[ThinkingBuddha]

Perhaps...but voting for 9/11 truth, Code Pink aligned candidates doesn't make a great deal of sense either.

Ron Pual never said 911 was an inside job. Having troops around the world especially in the middle-east was one of the many contributing factors for 911.

I kow Islam is a vile religion, with along history of expantionist violence, but having military presence in their lands only play to their strengths not ours.

[traderrob6]

“I will choose Ron Paul over filpfopping-pseudo conservatives Newt and Mitch.”

Started drinking a bit early today eh?

[Republican Wildcat]

That’s not a response to what I said.

[New Jersey Realist]

Even Paul is better than the creep we now have as President. If he gained the nomination, I’d vote for him because he couldn’t do any worse.

[BfloGuy]

Do you consider Ralph Nader to be a conservative?

Of course not, but he's no libertarian, either.

[BfloGuy]

Do you consider Ralph Nader to be a conservative?

Of course not, but he's no libertarian, either.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I still think Newt will pull it out.

[EDINVA]

In the IA caucuses it’s not just a matter of going to the polls and casting your vote. You have to devote the evening to the caucus. Reps for the various candidates speak, folks in the caucus speak and/or ask questions before any voting. Fascinating, but it does pretty much take up the voters’ entire evening.

And, IIRC, the caucuses are ‘open’ which presents another challenge with idle Dems thinking they might impact the GOP caucuses results. That’s less likely to happen in smaller towns where they have to live with their neighbors who know their politics.