After getting through the keystone cop image of the CIA, the ineptness of the military and other MSM fantasies, remember one thing. We have the best technology on the planet.
I would seriously doubt a country, who’s AF consists of F14’s with no spare parts and other obsolete weapons, as well as technology and a ideology rooted in 7th century Islam is gong to break codes or bring down an advanced system produced by US engineers.
Never underestimate your enemy.
Nearly every engineering and science grad school in the nation has several to many Iranian grad students rolling through their departments for the past 30 years.
If they can process nuclear fuels and are feared to possess nuclear weapons, then they also will have the ability in at least small numbers to dedicate themselves to such projects when they have been given over a decade of opportunity.
We haven’t done anything to redirect their volition.
If anything, our departure from Iraq might embolden their zeal.
Very likely that the FSB is using Iran as we used Afganistan and Turkey during the Cold War. Russian Spetnaz troops and Sigint agents at small Elint sites (shipping vans) likely line various hot US signal reception areas in Iran monitoring what we are doing in the Afganistan war. The remote area where the drone crashed is one possible area where they may be active.
The Russians would like nothing better than to sell Iran more mil stuff like S300 systems. Even if they have to take an initial loss, other countries will demand them and so arms sales will begin again.
The Russians and Chinese probabally have either stolen most of the tech or have things comparable or better.
So the Russians force the drone down in such a way that US cannot tell if it was forced down or malfunctioned. The Iranians immediately demand Russia give them the mil tech in exchage for drone access. (Which they have now done with Yakout missile systems).
The Russian arms companies will be back in business again with the latest mil tech for export to other countries demanding S300s and Yakouts.
Devious I know, but these Russians do not think as most, deviousness is a way of life.