If it’s really that close... Gingrich wins, because the average voting age in the Iowa caucus is like 65 or something like that, and Gingrich gets most of his support from the elderly.
Well, the race is on and here comes Santorum
Up the backstretch
Newts a-going to the inside
Michelle is holding back
And tryin’ not to fall
Huntsman’s out of the running
Perry’s scratched for another’s sake
The race is on and it looks like Romney
And the winner loses all
Dec. 18? This is ancient history.
If Newt pulls this off next Tuesday it will be hugh, and possible vey series for Romney. Like getting bitten by a moose.
For example, according to Insider Advantage Santorum has gone from 7% to 3% to 13%, Romney has gone from 12(!)% to 18% to 17%, Perry has gone from 13% to 16% to 11%...
Polling results shouldn't be perfectly smooth, considering the margin of error, but those results are a bit too jumpy for my taste.
Regardless, the overall message from this and other polls is that Santorum is rising while other candidates are relatively stagnant.
Almost 33% of INDEPENDENTS are voting for Paul.
I wonder what types of voters can be found in this group recently in Iowa???
The issues and outcome of the general election are important no doubt but do we feel a little silly considering the archaic and flat-out goofy nature of the Iowa process? Can’t the result be manipulated and/or discounted based on the caucus system’s inherent flaws?
What’s the odds that this poll gets any play in the headlines today? It’s not as exciting as the CNN poll, and doesn’t support narratives that the media wants to drive.
Hopefully this is just Iowa and not national.
Iowa’s goofy, and polls suck. But three points to consider:
1. Where will the Ron Paul support go after he finally runs out of steam?
2. Who (if any) will be forced to drop out before Super Tuesday by lack of funds?
3. What influence will Trump exert (under threat of running as a 3rd party candidate)?
Folks, if this poll is accurate, then we officially still have a SIX person race with just days to go before the Iowa caucus.
I try to keep the pulse of my electorate here in Iowa. Just from what I see and hear:
-I don’t see the enthusiasm over Paul that media or the polls seems to give him credit for.
-I don’t see the enthusiasm for Romney that gets him 20%.
-Gingrich and Santorum seem to have the most traction with the folks that I run with. Pretty diverse group too.
-Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum are courting the same voters.
FWIW
The trend is bachmann will beat noot in iowa, http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/ppp-polls-iowa-paul-24-romney-20-gingrich-13_614928.html