I don't think there are nearly enough "thinking" Dem voters to sway things one way or another. The vast majority of Rat voters are simply mindless sheep that vote whichever way the MSM wants them to, easily controlled with propaganda and scare tactics. Unfortunately, there's a sizable chunk of the Repub voting block that is also easily controlled by the MSM.
So in the end, for a 3rd party candidate to have any chance at all of affecting the outcome of the election, the MSM would have to get behind them - and there's no way that's going to happen. We already know who the MSM anointed candidates are - ObaMao & Willard. I don't believe there are enough independently thinking non-sheeple voters on either the left OR right to change this. A third party candidate would get no support from the MSM, and would ultimately affect at most a percentage point or two in terms of swaying the overall vote. Which camp this 1%-2% swing would come from is anyone's best guess. But either way, we're going to end up with an MSM-anointed status-quo elitist in the executive office once this election is done.
Well, give them a little credit. All Dems are not stupid. They are willfully ignorant but not stupid. And a lot of them are mad as hell at Obozo and would vote for someone else if given a choice.