Unfortunately for Newt, the same ad attacks will follow him here in SC and FL, on the radio, t.v., and through the mail. Unless he can get out in front of it, make an incredibly strong showing, he will face the same fate as the drop in polling that’s happened in Iowa. As an aside, while out yesterday morning in the great Upstate of SC, I saw an incredibly large sign for Newt in a great strategic location. Here’s hoping for the best; the thought of a Romney nomination sickens me to the core.
Florida behaved very differently from SC last time. Huckabee was 4th and Rudy beat him. Mitt did a lot better there too. The religious conservative vote didn’t seem to be much of a factor there as it is in IA and SC.
Mitt Romney really needs to lose SC and FL to be taken out of the running. FL is really where Newt has to make his biggest stand. If he wins there, it could really turn things around in his favor. If he doesn’t, then it’s hard to see how he continues. If Mitt wins IA and FL, then I think the primary is over.
South Carolina:
John McCain 147,733 33.15% 18
Mike Huckabee 132,990 29.84% 6
Fred Thompson 69,681 15.63% 0
Mitt Romney 68,177 15.3% 0
Ron Paul 16,155 3.62% 0
Rudy Giuliani 9,575 2.15% 0
Florida:
John McCain 701,761 36% 45 57
Mitt Romney 604,932 31.03% 18 0
Rudy Giuliani 286,089 14.68% 0 0
Mike Huckabee 262,681 13.47% 4 0
Ron Paul 62,887 3.23% 0 0
Fred Thompson* 22,668 1.16% 0 0
That's my fear as well. But somehow I don't think the folks in SC and FL are going to be as easily moved away from Newt as we have seen in Iowa. Don't forget, Iowa was in the Obama column in 2008. Could be the water. Or maybe they just eat too much corn.