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The Coming Collapse of China: 2012 Edition
FP.com ^ | December 29,2011 | GORDON G. CHANG

Posted on 01/02/2012 7:12:49 PM PST by Hojczyk

I admit it: My prediction that the Communist Party would fall by 2011 was wrong. Still, I'm only off by a year

In the middle of 2001, I predicted in my book, The Coming Collapse of China, that the Communist Party would fall from power in a decade, in large measure because of the changes that accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) would cause. A decade has passed; the Communist Party is still in power. But don't think I'm taking my prediction back.

Don't believe any of this. China outperformed other countries because it was in a three-decade upward supercycle, principally for three reasons. First, there were Deng Xiaoping's transformational "reform and opening up" policies, first implemented in the late 1970s. Second, Deng's era of change coincided with the end of the Cold War, which brought about the elimination of political barriers to international commerce. Third, all of this took place while China was benefiting from its "demographic dividend," an extraordinary bulge in the workforce.

First, the Communist Party has turned its back on Deng's progressive policies. Hu Jintao, the current leader, is presiding over an era marked by, on balance, the reversal of reform. There has been, especially since 2008, a partial renationalization of the economy and a marked narrowing of opportunities for foreign business

Second, the global boom of the last two decades ended in 2008 when markets around the world crashed.

Third, China, which during its reform era had one of the best demographic profiles of any nation, will soon have one of the worst. The Chinese workforce will level off in about 2013, perhaps 2014,

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: globalist; politicalcorrectness; propaganda; vanities
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To: meatloaf
One big issue involves demographics. China's "one child" policy resulted in larger numbers of women going into the workforce once their one child got older. This greatly increased the workforce.

The downside now is that one child will now have to support two parents and four grandparents as they get too old to work. Ain't gonna happen.

Also, if war threatens to erupt, parents are NOT going to like the possibility of losing their only child on some battlefield.

As far as North Korea, I could see the Chinese going in and dealing with the situation by killing the men, and distributing the women among their own people.

41 posted on 01/03/2012 9:42:14 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.)
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To: Olog-hai

[ How come all socialist and communist countries are antidemocratic ]

They are NOT anti-democratic.. The government OWNS the people as property.. The only citizens are members of the communist party.. They have a vestigial vote.. not a real vote but an alleged vote.. All democracy’s are lies..

No democracy has ever been democratic..
An elite always runs things...


42 posted on 01/03/2012 9:46:35 AM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole...)
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To: hosepipe

That’s hilarious. So you’re alleging that the Founding Fathers set up an autocracy run by an elite?


43 posted on 01/03/2012 9:48:24 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: Olog-hai

[ That’s hilarious. So you’re alleging that the Founding Fathers set up an autocracy run by an elite? ]

America is not a democracy nor is it a democratic republic..

America is a Constitutional Republic.. thats WHY democrats try and are trying to make the Constitution obsolete..

and are being pretty successful..


44 posted on 01/03/2012 9:53:13 AM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole...)
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To: Olog-hai

Hosepipe is 100% correct. This is a republic, not a democracy. FedGov™ is a construct of the states not vice versa.


45 posted on 01/03/2012 10:00:03 AM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: hosepipe

You’re confused. Are politicians elected in the USA, or do they inherit their positions in government from their fathers? Do we have a president for life, whose father was the previous president? Do we have separation of powers and the rule of law, or not? You’re the one that implied that the USA is ruled by elites and that the Founding Fathers set it up to be so. The definition of a “republic” cannot exclude the people choosing who represents them in government; otherwise it is not a republic. The same goes with a constitutional monarchy, where the difference is the monarchy and the trappings thereof.


46 posted on 01/03/2012 10:00:25 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: central_va

Do you know what a republic is?


47 posted on 01/03/2012 10:01:43 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: Olog-hai

Clearly you don’t.


48 posted on 01/03/2012 10:02:26 AM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Rooivalk
And to complicate matters further for the Chinese, Africa is becoming hip to their game. There is greater and greater unrest in the African nations regarding the Chinese presence in Africa. China figured that the Africans would go along with their schemes of letting China rip off their resources for pennies because the Chinese were going to be their 'friends' and not treat them like the western powers did. Well the Chinese have received a rude awakening as Africans now are telling the Chinese to go home and leave Africa alone. The Africans are now seeing that the Chinese are not friends to anyone but other Chinese.

For a while, I've been thinking that China had plans of playing "Cowboys and Africans" in Africa once they had a critical mass of Chinese over there. We will see if the Africans kick them out before this happens.

49 posted on 01/03/2012 10:04:20 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.)
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To: hosepipe

olag hai, the boy is hopeless.


50 posted on 01/03/2012 10:04:29 AM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: cunning_fish
Guys, any trade is against communism. Rejecting enterprise, market and trade is a main idea of communism. You can’t tell China has communism + enterprise, market and trade no matter how many limits you are including there.

There is no pure communism now, nor in the past, for one simple reason. Communism doesn't work. Never has, never will. It will ALWAYS need to be mixed with some degree of market economy in order to avoid immediate collapse.

51 posted on 01/03/2012 10:07:40 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.)
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To: central_va
Don't evade the question. Even socialist states have appropriated the name "republic", the falsity of the appellation aside—the "R" in USSR was "Republics". That doesn't take away from the character of a true republic, but denying the nature of a true republic implies a lack of understanding of what a republic is.
52 posted on 01/03/2012 10:07:52 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: Olog-hai
[ You’re the one that implied that the USA is ruled by elites and that the Founding Fathers set it up to be so. ]

Elites rule in every government on earth.. and every kind of government its just the nature of government that determine who and How those are in charge...

[ The definition of a “republic” cannot exclude the people choosing who represents them in government; otherwise it is not a republic. ]

In a republic the States have a central government(federal) as a vassal.. In a democracy the States become provinces like in Canada.. and are vassals of the central government.. Thats what starting happening to the U.S. after the Civil War here..

[ The same goes with a constitutional monarchy, where the difference is the monarchy and the trappings thereof. ]

A monarchy is Mob Rule(by mobsters) exactly like a democracy is.. no difference.. or communism(socialism)..

**Note: America has three governments.. Federal, State and Local...
--------------------------

Democracy is the road to socialism. -Karl Marx

Democracy is indispensable to socialism. The goal of socialism is communism. -V.I. Lenin

The meaning of peace is the absence of opposition to socialism .-Karl Marx

53 posted on 01/03/2012 10:14:45 AM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole...)
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To: Olog-hai
Section 4. The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened) against domestic Violence.

The word democratic or democracy does not appear in the US Constitution.

54 posted on 01/03/2012 10:16:12 AM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Olog-hai

A communist country can call themselves a republic if they like, but that is a bastardization. Their elected officials are not really elected, they are appointed or run for office with no competitor. No parties exist except the one Communist party. All the republics in a communist country have the same laws unless the oligarchy gives them permission to deviate. That is not a republic.


55 posted on 01/03/2012 10:22:45 AM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: hosepipe
You're as bad as a communist with your false definitions.

In a republic the States have a central government (federal) as a vassal
Looks like you haven't read Article VI Section 2 of the US Constitution. A "central government as a vassal" cannot exercise supreme authority as this law purports to do.

A monarchy is Mob Rule (by mobsters)
So you're calling God a "mobster"? Were the kings that He appointed over ancient Israel also "mobsters"?

I take it you're as anti-religion as the communists then. The Founding Fathers made it plain that the pillars that would keep the USA standing are religion and morality, without which you cannot have rule of law via a Constitution—perhaps you should take another look at that viewpoint.
56 posted on 01/03/2012 10:23:09 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: central_va

You’re evading defining the word “republic” like I asked.


57 posted on 01/03/2012 10:24:04 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: central_va

I agree that communist countries are not republics; they’re pseudorepublics. But you did herein point out one of the characteristics of a republic, that being elected officials. Other ones are true supremacy of the people, as well as separation of powers in government, and the rule of law versus the rule of man with nobody above the law.


58 posted on 01/03/2012 10:26:52 AM PST by Olog-hai
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To: Olog-hai
re·pub·lic   /rɪˈpʌblɪk/ Show Spelled[ri-puhb-lik] noun
  1. a state in which the supreme power rests in the body of citizens entitled to vote and is exercised by representatives chosen directly or indirectly by them.
  2. any body of persons viewed as a commonwealth.
  3. a state in which the head of government is not a monarch or other hereditary head of state.
  4. ( initial capital letter ) any of the five periods of republican government in France. Compare First Republic, Second Republic, Third Republic, Fourth Republic, Fifth Republic.
  5. ( initial capital letter, italics ) a philosophical dialogue (4th century b.c.) by Plato dealing with the composition and structure of the ideal state.

59 posted on 01/03/2012 10:27:09 AM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Olog-hai
[So you're calling God a "mobster"? ]

In the U.S.A. the Constitution mentions a "generic" God..

[Were the kings that He appointed over ancient Israel also "mobsters"? ]

Isreal's government was a renegade government..
they demanded(of Moses) that "GOD" setup a government like the gentiles.. (with a King).

There is no evidence that God had that in mind.. for them..
What God would have setup for them, up no one knows..
So Isreals government was a renegade government..
Compared to what Man has setup.. it was pretty good..

Isreal shot themselves in the foot.. or some other appendage..

60 posted on 01/03/2012 10:34:56 AM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole...)
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