Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
I’ll get my guess in.
Romney - 23%
Paul - 20%
Santorum - 18%
Gingrich - 18%
Perry - 12%
Bachmann - 8%
Huntsman - 1%
Occupy’s Iowa options: Ron Paul or Uncommitted
http://www.salon.com/2012/01/02/occupys_iowa_options_ron_paul_or_uncommitted/singleton/
“Our goal has been to sign people up to go to the Democratic caucuses as uncommitted delegates that are pushing to get our troops out of Afghanistan within 12 months of Obama’s reelection and for Medicare for all during his second term.”
...And then there’s the Occupy Wall Street supporters who want to vote for Ron Paul.
oh and Bachmann drops out tomorrow
Latest Gallup tracking is out - Santorum continues to rise:
Nationally:
Romney down 2 to 24%
Gingrich down 1 to 23%
Paul +2 to 13%
Perry flat at 7%
Santorum +1, moves into 5th at 6%
Bachmann flat at 5%
Radio Host Calls on Dems to Cast Uncommitted Caucus Vote
http://www.kptm.com/story/16431595/iowa-talk-radio-host-calls-on-dems-to-cast-uncommitted-caucus-vote
Fallon, who also hosts a progressive talk radio show in Des Moines, is an Occupy activist. He said some progressives are not happy with President Obama.
“I think if a strong showing of people came through as uncommitted, he might start paying attention to the people who feel left behind,” Fallon said.
The last time the percentage of uncommitted ballots took first place was in 1976. Then presidential hopeful Jimmy Carter won 27 percent but 37 percent voted uncommitted.
If it’s an option, I’d like to ask my fellow conservative registered ‘Rats to do that as well :-)
Romney 23
Santorum 22
Newt 18
Paul 17
Perry 16
Rest - Who Cares
(Yes, I think in the end, Newt bests Ron Paul, as most of Paul’s supporters will stay home and suck on their bongs.)
My prediction on tonight’s results.
Santorum 22
Romney 21
Paul 20
Gingrich 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 8
Huntsman 4
Other 2
placemark
Not sure about Newt since he has a habit of saying stuff nobody wants to hear. Also not sure about Perry since he has a habit of saying stuff that only late night comics like. Not sure about Paul since he has a habit of saying stuff only Islamists like. But for sure the say anything to win Romney will make it to S.C. Will the Red Necks in S.C. will treat him as well as the Yankees up north? Turn in next week to fine out.
That confirms the polls, but I’d be surprised if someone doesn’t overwhelmingly get the 40% undecided count and win fairly comfortably with over 25%. I support Perry, but it looks like Santorum will get the undecideds, if anyone, which is why I predicted 28%.
Romney ?
Paul ?
Perry ?
Newt ?
Santorum ?
Bachmann ?
Huntsman ?
the +40% of undecided caucus voters will win the election. Even if half of them don't show.
The losers will be the idiot pollsters/pundits who didn't talk about the undecided until the last few days when they had to. Every election, they cheerlead for the left/who buys the ads, then change their story at the last minute to look objective.
Any prediction would be based solely on wishful thinking, not any real insight. The best result for me would be one in which someone other than Paul wins and Romney gets less than 20%.
Father In Heaven,
Be with Iowa’s Voter’s today, touch their hearts and lead them to YOUR choice for our next leader. Place YOUR Angels about each voting place and protect voters, And Lord Cause confusion in the minds of those who desire to cheat and steal votes from the true votes. In the Name Of Jesus we Pray.
_____________________________________________
Standing in prayer and agreement.
AMEN
I read today 41 percent still undecided Anyone can win, it’s a wide open race and you are correct .... the ground game counts.
A stealth write in campaign would explain the high number of undecided. I’m praying.
It will be interesting how the rests are spun. I can easily see where 3 or 4 candidates may be with one or two percent of each other. A candidate may come in 5th but only 4 pts from second place.
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