I had some extra time and projected the vote totals for Hillsborough (The largest county in NH containing Nashua and Manchester) and Belknap (Laconia). Breakout by Townships is in the document which is similar format to how I did IA (without the colors).
As of these 2 counties, I’m projecting Romney will get somewhere around 46-47% of the vote. This consists of Romney’s 2008 totals and about half of McCain’s 2008 totals.
Huntsman gets about a 1/3 of McCain voters and most of the Rudy people.
Santorum gets about 80% of Huckabee supporters and what little vote of Duncan Hunter from 2008.
Gingrich gets about 20% of Huckabee voters, 17% of McCain, and what little vote of Fred Thompson from 2008.
The remainder resulting in an increase in voter turnout goes majority to Ron Paul.
As a result with these two counties, I have the following totals:
Romney: 44,840 46.58%
Huntsman: 17,427 18.10%
Paul: 17,334 18.01%
Gingrich: 7962 8.27%
Santorum: 7649 7.95%
Perry: 1059 1.10%
Photo finish between Paul and Huntsman for 2nd. Really depends on how many new voters (i.e. Democrats) turn out for Paul.
Gingrich has an edge of a few hundred votes on Santorum which should stay consistent as the projection formula favors Gingrich since the 17% of McCain he is drawing from is slighty larger or the same that the 80% of Huckabee voters Santorum gets.
Perry gets table scraps. Can’t see him getting over 2% statewide. Looks like he will have to wait to SC.
Tried to ping what people were interested in the data. If Gingrich does get to 11%, then Huntsman will finish behind Paul by virtue of them drawing from the same voting pool.
Perferably, it would be good for Huntsman to finish 2nd and continue to SC, because he would be competing for the same voters on the coast, mid/low country of SC that Romney would, splitting the moderate vote.
Well find out if I’m right or need to go back to the drawing board in a few hours.
According to town officials, lines have been especially long for those registering to vote for the first time.
Oops, maybe it would help if I “shared” the doc. Sorry about that if the link above didn’t work. Fixed it.
Interesting. So Newt’s collapse is a result of the establishment RINOs wanting to back a winner, and throwing to Mitt.
That’s what I thought. I figured Newt was drawing more from the establishment folks than from conservatives.
You’re predictions were pretty good. What happens if Newt loses his 20 percent of conservatives and they throw to Santorum?