Posted on 01/11/2012 7:47:12 PM PST by VinL
ATLANTA -- As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.
The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Savannah Morning News and the Augusta Chronicle conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.
Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third place in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.
Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.
The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.
Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.
Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.
“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”
Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.
Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.
The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party's chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it's also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state's political operatives.
Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina's GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.
This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state's active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.
Since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.
Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.
Thing the poll numbers are why Newt backed off a little- he doesn’thave to go wholly negative now— let the SuperPac do it.
Hammer on “crony capitalism” - and wait for Sarah Palin to show up— which I think she will. Then, it’s game, set -match.
Excellent news. Newt has really cut into Romneys lead. I think by election day Newt will be ahead. GO NEWT!
Romney’s day just got better. John Bolton has endorsed Romney. He announced on Greta.....damn.
Bolton endorsed McCain in ‘08, so not very surprising.
I would have expected Perry to be polling better..
Haven’t been around SC since the late 70’s- 80. Went back to Newport News about 5 years ago and was amazed at how the whole area has grown- we used to slide down to Hatteras a little off-season and had the place to ourselves , it seemed.
Been a big growth state from what I hear so I guess demographics have changed.
Yay Newt! Seems the stuff coming out on Romney is starting to make a dent.
It’s going to be Gingrich vs. Romney
The real election starts now. Santorum distant 3rd.
“Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third place in South Carolina with 14 percent”
Go Newt Go!
The big road trips were to Myrtle Beach, I should have added...
I’ll finish my thoughts, next time before I post!
It did seem like a Dixie Tobacco Road continuum back then.
Gator, don’t think it matters. 1. Can Newt tap into 2010 anti-establishment tea party; 2. will Gov. Palin come on board.
That’s what Newt’s trying to do— and if he does— he’ll win.
“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”
“Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.”
Southerners don’t do Iowa and New Hampshire, especially NH.
Yay Newt! Seems the stuff coming out on Romney is starting to make a dent.
*********************
Nay, you evidently didn’t get the memo from the GOP “conservative” commentators— that backfired. -:)
I think the Republican elite are getting nervous, so they are pulling out all the stops early. It still makes me sick.
This is great news considering all of the BIG pundits are telling Newt to get out of the race.
I would like Perry to be polling higher, but I am happy just to see the “experts” get kicked square in the nuts.
I'm glad I was at a stop light at the time. I was laughing so hard, I might have wrecked.
I hope you’re right. It’s all beginning to seem very surreal.
After watching the Bain video, Romney did go in and manufactures stability of a company, (more than once) then flushed the companies making millions along with his other Latin investors. He knew when to buy and when to dump. I cannot believe Hannity and Rush do not think that this kind of business buy and dump and make tons of money is not important. (profiteering comes to mind- did he have friends on the inside of Wall Street? I see why Gov. Palin said this should be talked about before the general and ask Mitt to show the proof of the jobs that he created. He cut a number of jobs and it was not for reconstructing a company.
LOL...Carolina corn is better than Iowa and Midwesterners don’t know the first thing about BBQ lmao.
...and NH seafood is bland compared to Low Country shrimp and Gumbo...
Bring on the South.
Romney is dead meat.
Any idea what the numbers were 2-3 weeks ago? It’s all about trends, and I would have expected Newt to be up about 7-10 over Romney per-New Hampshire.
He will be...Santorum will fade
Despite massive hits on Gingrich he is a survivor.
He is the toughest to defeat cutthroat Romney.
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