In case you guys haven’t seen this:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2835567/posts
Final simulation has Newt by 14,000 votes. However, looking like my margin of error is going to be +/- 2% with Newt around 37%, Romney near 30%, Santorum 15-16% and Paul 13-14%.
I think turnout might be nailed at roughly 495,000-500,000 because I appear to have the Paul vote fully accounted for.
County by County analysis in the thread I posted. After the results come in, I’ll compare to how well(poorly) I did.
parksstp, I looked at your model and you took a very prudent approach to the projections and assumed Santorum holds up well after Thursday’s debate. Dick Morris and Michael Barone agree with that assessment.
What do you foresee the bad weather in mid-SC doing to turnout? Does your model factor in the GOTV organization in bad weather?
parksstp, I looked at your model and you took a very prudent approach to the projections and assumed Santorum holds up well after Thursday’s debate. Dick Morris and Michael Barone agree with that assessment.
What do you foresee the bad weather in mid-SC doing to turnout? Does your model factor in the GOTV organization in bad weather?
parksstp, I looked at your model and you took a very prudent approach to the projections and assumed Santorum holds up well after Thursday’s debate. Dick Morris and Michael Barone agree with that assessment.
What do you foresee the bad weather in mid-SC doing to turnout? Does your model factor in the GOTV organization in bad weather?
BTTT