The takeaway: Mittens has a much steeper hill to climb in Florida. Florida may be a more “diverse” (Translate: liberal) state than S.C. but the primary electorate will be less diverse (translate: more conservative).
Santorum is going to fade because people will not want to waste a vote. This will help Newt run up huge margins in the panhandle and the I-4 corridor that Willard will be unable to overcome elsewhere.
Love your analysis. What do you suppose Mitt's campaign strategists are thinking about the scenario you've just laid out? They've also got to realize that Florida is the do or die state for Mitt.
Do you think they'll try to counter Newt by opting for the traditional all-out negative ad blitz - or do you think they're realizing that they've got to consult Sun Tzu for a better strategy?
One thing is certain - they're not about to fold their tents and go home. They're about to do something.
“What do you suppose Mitt’s campaign strategists are thinking about the scenario you’ve just laid out? They’ve also got to realize that Florida is the do or die state for Mitt.”
They will do what Romney always does. Sleazy attacks that Romney will pretend he had nothing to do with. They will double down on Newt to try to destroy him.
I don’t think it will work. It is effectively a one on one race now. Santorum can’t be revived. Palin has weighed in for Newt. The scenario is hardening. Romney can’t face the numbers. There are too many conservatives in the GOP primary for him to win a one on one race or even a one on two race. Add to this the fact that he is a nebbish and a very bad candidate who people just don’t like or trust and you begin to see that Mitt ain’t gonna make it. Newt is a strong personality, and a towering intellect who is resolute and his record of governance is staunchly conservative. He is the worst candidate for Romney to be paired against at this time.
I think Mitt is toast, particularly when you examine the disproportionate number of delegates the southern states have. These are states that are even more conservative than South Carolina and Newt is really gonna skunk the greasy flip flopper in Dixie.
I heard somewhere in the news someone claim that HALF of all Floridians had already voted through early voting. Is that possible? Anyone know what percentage of votes came through early voting in FL before?
One problem is Mitt has already been advertising, sending mailings and promoting early voting for a week or more, while no other candidates have been doing anything there. I suspect the significance of that was trumped up to add to the meme of Mitt’s “inevitability” but it could be a factor. OTOH, if Floridians watched last week’s debates, they may be shifting to Newt the same way SC did.