Economic conservatives:
Before the first debate the folks who I would hear talking about the primary were still favoring Romney over Gingrich and Santorum by roughly a 2-1 margin with a few supporting Perry and Paul. Based on the comments I heard, many of them wanted to support another candidate than Romney but felt he was the one to take on Obama and it was inevitable.
The first debate changed everything. Quite few of the Romney supporters started jumping ship over to Newt. The second debate and Perry endorsement really started putting him over the top. I know one lady who voted for Romney in 2008 and was going to vote for him in 2012 but changed her mind for Gingrich.
Social conservatives:
They were definitely a mixed bag supporting Gingrich, Santorum and Perry. Most did not favor Romney at all and didn't like talking about him. I really don't know if it's his Mormonism or being moderate or both that put these folks off but they definitely don't care for him.
The first and second debate helped Gingrich out with the social conservatives. I think the Perry endorsement and quasi-Palin endorsement really put Gingrich in command with thesm and got them excited about Gingrich. I still think quite a few of them really like Santorum overall, so he should do well with them.
Republican Moderates:
The moderate style of Republicans are sticking with Romney and they haven't seemed phased by anything. I will say this that this group seems to be sticking Romney and they aren't giving up.
Turnout at my precinct seemed low but that is probably pretty common for a primary. That's it from the Lowcountry.
Thanks for that report and interesting analysis, Mr. Fuji.
Going back to your analysis, Mr. Fuji....I wonder if the overriding reason people began switching to Newt was his willingness to fight.
With something as nasty as a second wive’s allegations of Newt wanting an open marriage, Newt refused to play the media’s game and went on the offense with the media (not his ex-wife). This is one thing George Bush would rarely do. It wasn’t because he couldn’t, he just believed it was below the office of the Presidency.
Couple Newt’s willingness to fight, he comes up with concrete plans when asked. IOW, he’s willing to put real ideas/plans out in the public vs. merely platitudes.
That’s different/appealing to a lot of Rep’s tired of voting for the same ‘ol - same ‘ol establishment candidate.
Thanks much for the report and your perspective. Can hardly wait for the returns!
Take care up that way and try to stay dry.
May God guide our course.
Tatt