1/21/12 GALLUP DAILY: Republican Registered Voters (Romney 31, Newt 23, Paul 14, Santorum 12)

Gallup ^ | 1/21/12 | Gallup

[BCrago66]

Romney 31, Gingrich 23, Paul 14, Santorum 12.

[BCrago66]

I have difficulty posting the image of the chart, so please click the link to see the full dramatic effect of the Gingrich surge. On 1/15, it was Romney 37, Gingrich 13, a 24 point gap. Now 6 days later, Gingrich has reduced that gap by 16 points - 31 v. 23 - bringing Gingrich within 8 points of Romney.

On another happy note, it looks like Santorum's character attacks on Gingrich drew blood, only it was Santorum's blood. He's in last place not just nationally, but in South Carolina too (see the Realcleapolitics.com SC polling average.)

[jeltz25]

Gallup runs a 5 day avg and today’s # still includes Romney’s 16 pt lead on Monday. If it’s down to 8 by now it means that it’s tied or Newt was slightly ahead yesterday.

Newt will be ahead by Monday’s Gallup release, especially after tonight.

[Arm_Bears]

What are the results for likely Republican voters?

[2111USMC]

SOUTH CAROLINA LATEST POLL: Gingrich 40%, Romney 26% (ARG Poll)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2835821/posts

[untwist]

BCrago66, I saw the Gallup conclusion yesterday that Romney’s support has ‘Collapsed’. This is simply astounding. Being in FL, we have been getting the TV commercials for 2 weeks now, 1 attack Newt mailer from Restore our Future, 3 pro-Romney mailers from the campaign in the last couple of days, and the floor is falling through.

All that money spent to jack Romney up to 40%+, and if Newt wins a convincing win today, the impact of all that Romney money is gone! There was an online rumor last night quoting a Romney campaign source that he may want to skip the Monday debate in Tampa, just to blunt Gingrich’s surge. Another big mistake as it only amplifies the perceived anxiety and weakness that he has in going toe-to-toe against Gingrich. I heard on Fox this morning that Mitt now says he will debate Monday.

This race in my view is the continuation of the Tea Party congressional race in 2010. The conservatives gave the party a huge, overwhelming victory, and the establishment leaders have squandered the energy. This will not stand.

Newt’s statement about a strong partnership with the President and Congress is a big deal and the voters are responding. This is the race of our lifetimes!

[BCrago66]

The latest national Republican likely voters poll I found is from Rasmussen, conducted on 1/17/12. It shows:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_republican_presidential_primary

Romney 30
Gingrich 27
Santorum 15
Paul 13

[DirtyHarryY2K]

I’m registered Republican and I’ve never been surveyed by GALLUP Rassmussen or any other of these polling firms.. Ever..

[JSDude1]

I agree it’s Tea Party energy 2.0, untwist.

[38special]

So what about the other 20%?

[BCrago66]

Ask Frank Newport of Gallup.

[wardaddy]

We cannot get overconfident.

Folks must vote...as often as possible

and give money when u can

to beat the GOP establishment and the media...including FOX

[2111USMC]

Here in Iowa, we were getting 2-3 anti-Newt mailers PER DAY.

Additionally, the anti-Newt robo-calls were probably 3-4 PER DAY in the last week leading up to the caucuses.

Mitt’s campaign and PACs probably can’t afford to do it to that extreme in Florida due to the higher population.

[CainConservative]

Or at least after Monday’s debate when Newt opens up a lead in Florida, too.

Newt’s got this! SC + FL = Newt’s very very very likely our nom.

Btw, 174,000 absentee ballots have been returned in Florida.

Plus 10,000 ballots at 5 county early voting sites.

Last election early voting was 14 days and it would have taken place this past week. It was changed to eight days for all counties except those five.

So you have 184,000 ballots returned out of 2 million. So about 9 percent have been returned.

If Florida had been like the last primary with 14 days you would have had more than 20 percent returned by now.

[Proud2BeRight]

A lot of that is people jumping on the “let's beat Obama” bandwagon with the MSM touted “leader” from his great Iowa and NH victories and his invincibility. Wait until the SC results come in and they awaken to the real Iowa resullts.

[Arm_Bears]

Gracias.

It will be interesting to see how those numbers change, if at all, given recent events.

[katiedidit1]

You are so right. The fight has just begun. Romney is not going to debate in Fla (at least has not committed) and we all know that is Newt’s strong point. We need more debates as many issues have not been discussed enough. If Romney cops out on this....we need another strategy

[Tennessee Nana]

If Santorum drops out before Monday the debate will be Newt and Romney..

and the little old guy Ron Paul..

But Newt and Romney mostly...

What a debate

:)

[BCrago66]

According to this story posted a few hours ago, Romney will be at the FL debate Monday:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/romney-to-participate-in-florida-debates/2012/01/21/gIQAcYu8FQ_blog.html?wprss=election-2012&tid=sm_twitter_postpolitics

Which is good for Gingrich, because he just might need momentum from SC + another good debate performance to prevail over Mitt’s megabucks in the expensive Florida market.

[untwist]

Absolutely, Dude. I have been reading the wires to see what the Tea Party is doing. They are decisively breaking for Newt. Newt is starting to reveal the next step, which I have been waiting to see. The partnership with congress, which is most critical. The Tea Party have been pushed aside since their massive victory in November. The establishment leadership, with guys like Speaker Boehner and Senator McConnell are dealmakers. They cave. Their deal with Obama at end of 2010 to extend the Bush tax law and cut spending was an embarassment. The deal to continue defunding Soc. Sec. with this ‘tax cut’ gimmick and no discretionary spending cuts is the latest. The lack of response to the recess appointments, the killing of the Keystone pipeline deal, and much more, goes by and there is no effective conservative voice to attack, apart really from Newt.

If Newt effectively builds that partnership, then the big fight against the weak, passive moderate establishment really kicks in. We have already seen what the Tea Party can do. If we align, we can take the establishment out in the congressional and presidential elections all at once. The picture of Boehner playing golf with Obama last year will be shown again and again. He really blew it. I want to see Speaker Allan West next year, or another real strong leader like him. It can happen!

[jeltz25]

btw, the same Gallup poll also shows that as of now Obama beats both Romney and Gingrich by the same 50-48 margin. So much for the “only Romney can beat Obama” argument. I doubt you’ll hear anyone on FOX mention that tonight.

If Newt wins big tonight look for him to all of a sudden start to look a lot better vs Obama.

I’m paying attention to see if Jeb Bush still endorses Romney. If he doesn’t, it tells me the establishment has pulled the plug. I can only imagine the pressure on Rubio from them in the next few days.