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Path to Brokered GOP Convention Emerges (one can only hope)
Real Clear Politics ^ | February 9, 2012 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/09/2012 6:28:49 AM PST by St. Louis Conservative

For many conservative Republicans, the dream outcome of the primary season is a brokered convention. Disappointed in the four remaining choices, they hope to change horses in August, and draft their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or Paul Ryan.

I've been adamant that such an outcome is extremely unlikely. For a brokered convention to occur, there has to be an almost perfect storm of events; the GOP elites can’t just declare shenanigans on the primary season and select a new nominee. Instead, something has to prevent any of the current candidates from clinching a majority of the delegates; if one of them amasses that majority, he will be the nominee on the first ballot at the convention in Tampa.

My assumption -- and the assumption of many -- was that the GOP fight would eventually degenerate into an ideological battle between the very conservative and somewhat conservative/moderate wings of the party, with Romney on one side and a single alternative on the other. Unless there was a late entrant or Ron Paul caught fire in the caucus states, someone was virtually assured of claiming the requisite number of delegates in that scenario.

But for the first time, the two way faceoff doesn't seem inevitable, and a viable path to a brokered convention is beginning to emerge. Let’s start with something else I overlooked. The GOP does have super-delegates of a sort, in the form of the 63 RNC members. They aren’t as numerous as they are in the Democratic Party, but they are still there. While many of them have already declared allegiance to one candidate or another, those commitments can evaporate quickly, as Hillary Clinton learned to her sorrow in 2008.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Philosophy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: convention; obama; primary; republican

1 posted on 02/09/2012 6:28:58 AM PST by St. Louis Conservative
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To: St. Louis Conservative

Already posted:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2844322/posts


2 posted on 02/09/2012 6:31:18 AM PST by humblegunner
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To: St. Louis Conservative

Interesting. Now that Mittens is in trouble they want to sell us faux conservatives such as Christie, Daniels, or another Bush. I’ll stick with Santorum.


3 posted on 02/09/2012 6:32:18 AM PST by achilles2000 ("I'll agree to save the whales as long as we can deport the liberals")
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To: St. Louis Conservative

Ryan maybe. Hell no to the others, especially the Bush and Crispy Creme Christie.


4 posted on 02/09/2012 6:34:32 AM PST by Sybeck1 (It's official, Mitt can't win in either Dixie or the Midwest.)
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To: achilles2000

LOL. Daniels and Jeb are both solid conservatives. Jeb is much more solid than his brother.

Santorum is conservative on all the social issues, but he was a big government Bush Republican. I do not trust him on economic/fiscal issues.

For instance, I don’t think that Santorum would have signed a right-to-work bill as Mitch Daniels just did.


5 posted on 02/09/2012 6:37:03 AM PST by St. Louis Conservative
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To: St. Louis Conservative

This is gonna get interesting.


6 posted on 02/09/2012 6:38:43 AM PST by REDWOOD99 ("Everyone should pay taxes. Everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: St. Louis Conservative

If you think Daniels is a Conservative, you should listen to the Mark Levin calling Daniels out. Daniels actually sided with the Union thugs in Wisconsin.


7 posted on 02/09/2012 6:45:05 AM PST by NavVet ("You Lie!")
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To: St. Louis Conservative

Let the democrats not know who to go after until late summer.

They’re clearly having fundrasing troubles since they need to go the super pac route. Obama’s not a shoo-in, despite what the republican establishment thinks.

A real conservative republican nominee can sweep the table.


8 posted on 02/09/2012 6:50:50 AM PST by cotton1706
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To: St. Louis Conservative

Mitch “let’s-just-ignore-social-issues” Daniels is not only semi-conservative, but he also has the charisma of a goldfish. I agree that Jeb is more solid - by about 50 lbs -than his brother. Another Bush would never be elected, and the Bushes are weak on social issues, including Jeb.

I agree that Santorum has flaws. He was far too supportive of GWB and the “team”, but I think he has learned from that and would be more fiscally conservative than Bush ever was. There are no perfect candidates.


9 posted on 02/09/2012 6:55:48 AM PST by achilles2000 ("I'll agree to save the whales as long as we can deport the liberals")
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To: St. Louis Conservative; All
and draft their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or Paul Ryan. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Uh..... Can somebody help me out here? Those four are the choices of "Conservatives Republicans"? There's only one Conservative in that list; Paul Ryan. The rest are Moderates. Am I missing something?
10 posted on 02/09/2012 6:58:16 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: achilles2000

Mitch “let’s-just-ignore-social-issues” Daniels is not only semi-conservative, but he also has the charisma of a goldfish.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
You are absolutely correct on both counts. He is Obama-Lite on social issues and could you see him up against the charismatic Obozo in a Debate?


11 posted on 02/09/2012 7:02:46 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: St. Louis Conservative; Mountain Mary

It is high time that “- - - an ideological battle between the very conservative and somewhat conservative/moderate wings of the party - - - “ FINALLY is now occurring.

Each election the GOP Establishment sneers at us in Flyover Country, and says to us “Quit your whining, and complaining, and just hold your nose as you vote for who WE have chosen for you. Never mind that only 4 % of Primary voters have chosen the GOP Nominee. We know that you have no choice to vote but to vote for our RINO. Oh, and BTW, be sure to “get out the vote. “ If you don’t vote for our RINO, then you are voting for the Democrats. Hah, hah, we beat you again!”

That hasn’t worked out for decreasing the size of the US Federal Government, in the humble, but ALWAYS correct opinion of those of us who are TAXED ENOUGH ALREADY Voter Block Party.

Currently, Ol’ Karly “Turdblossom” Rover-Boy is the main GOP Establishment proponent of this tried, and failed argument. Time to “Move On,” Karly-Boy as the 2012 Election Train has left the Station, and you are not on it.

BTW Karly-Boy, don’t let the door hit yuh where the Good Lord split yuh! Maybe MSNBC, CNN or the NYT will give you a new contract?


12 posted on 02/09/2012 7:06:35 AM PST by Graewoulf (( obama"care" violates the 1890 Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND is illegal by the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: Graewoulf; All
One of RINO-Rom's 3 "home States" (Michigan) is having a Primary before Super Tuesday. Rick Santorum is taking Mitt on in Michigan (Newt is ducking and concentrating on Arizona. I don't know how Newt thinks he's gonna win if he keeps picking and choosing his State contests.) After what happened this past Tuesday, if Santorum beats Mitt in Michigan, (and he just might) that will be the beginning of the end for RINO-Rom. I was on Facebook this a.m. and all my Michigan friends are going for Santorum or Newt. Not one is going for Romney.
13 posted on 02/09/2012 7:16:55 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: St. Louis Conservative

“brokered convention” = death OF THE “GOP”!


14 posted on 02/09/2012 7:22:52 AM PST by US Navy Vet (Go Packers! Go Rockies! Go Boston Bruins! See, I'm "Diverse"!)
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To: St. Louis Conservative
Jeb is much more solid than his brother.

While I don't dispute that, I doubt there are many conservatives out there for whom Jeb Bush is their preferred candidate.

15 posted on 02/09/2012 7:29:30 AM PST by CommerceComet (If Mitt can leave the GOP to protest Reagan, why can't I do the same in protest of Romney?)
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To: St. Louis Conservative

Typical. No mention of the 1000-lb. gorilla. When Palin’s name fails to appear, I’m immediately suspicious of the source.


16 posted on 02/09/2012 7:51:29 AM PST by Mach9
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To: St. Louis Conservative
LOL. Daniels and Jeb are both solid conservatives. Jeb is much more solid than his brother.

The fact that you can see that Santorum is a big-government liberal and don't see the failings of Jeb "Open-Borders" Bush is quite telling.

Furthermore, he is just as much a "Compassionate" conservative as his older brother GWB and just as much a globalist.

In short, he is not a limited-government, individual liberty conservative.

If anything, (and if it is a correct term) he can be called a moderate-conservative, nothing more.
17 posted on 02/09/2012 7:54:42 AM PST by SoConPubbie
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To: St. Louis Conservative
Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.

I didn't know this. That means that the RNC is going against it's own rules if it lets Romney keep all the Florida delegates. There's been hardly a peep about it.

Also everyone seems to think that Romney has Michigan sewed up because he is a native Michigander and his father was governor. That's bunk. I'm 50 and barely knew the name Romney. I'm not the most political person in the world but my political knowledge is probably 80% better than most and I know nothing about George Romney except he was the governor a long time ago. I'm not sure how these things translate to votes.

18 posted on 02/09/2012 8:07:55 AM PST by DouglasKC
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To: St. Louis Conservative

does anyone have a link to somewhere that shows which of the remaining contests are winner take all?


19 posted on 02/09/2012 8:13:39 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: US Navy Vet; no dems; Mountain Mary; All

The GOP Establishment has allowed their RINO wing to con us into believing that “their way or the highway” is the only way to reduce the size of the US Federal Government.

After 80 years of failed Republican Presidential promises to “Balance the Budget,” (All have promised as Candidates, but NO Republican President has EVER had even one year that their Federal Budget was balanced), it is time for a massive takeover by The TEA Party of the Republican Party, and give ALL Americans a true choice to significantly reduce the size of the US Federal Government for the first time in 80 years.

It is easier to take over the GOP than it would be to expand the TEA Party from its current voter-block, lobby status to full regalia political party status, with candidates and the rest of the distracting baggage necessary in today’s political environment.

BTW, politicians judge themselves by what they say. Voters judge politicians by what they have done in the past. What has Romney done for America lately, or EVER?


20 posted on 02/09/2012 8:42:06 AM PST by Graewoulf (( obama"care" violates the 1890 Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND is illegal by the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: St. Louis Conservative; All
I read the entire article. A Brokered Convention sounds exciting but this is a concern about a BC if someone, not currently running, gets the nod:

The nominee would have to be able to put together a platform, a fundraising organization, prepare for debates, select a running mate, and hit the campaign trail, all in a manner of weeks.
And the candidate would not be fully vetted. There might be some skeleton in his closet, or his family’s.


The last Dem BC was in 1952 when they nominated Gov. Adlai Stevenson of IL. The last GOP BC was 1940 when they nominated Wendell Wilkie. THEY BOTH LOST.
21 posted on 02/09/2012 8:46:53 AM PST by no dems (I'm more concerned with America's future than I am Newt's past.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

hm... I just wiki’d the primary states to see which of the remaining ones are winner take all ... and it doesn’t bode well for the ABR’s

Arizona -29
Michigan -30
Ohio -63
Vermont -17
Virginia (Santorum and Newt Removed from ballot) - 46
Kansas - 40
Puerto Rico - 20
Maryland - 37
DC - 16
Wisconsin - 39
Connecticut - 25
Delaware - 17
Indiana (Santorum removed from ballot) - 27
California - 169
New Jersey - 50
Utah - 40

= 665 delegates

*sigh*

no chance for the ABR’s, Romney will win nearly all of those. It seems that this was rigged from the start to favor Romney (it’s nice to have the insiders on your side) and they tipped the scale in Romney’s favor even further just in case by making sure Newt and/or Santorum were not on the ballot in a few key winner take all states that Romney might have lost


22 posted on 02/09/2012 8:47:20 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

disregard my previous post, it’s actually far more complicated than that.


23 posted on 02/09/2012 8:56:42 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

>>Does anyone have a link to somewhere that shows which of the remaining contests are winner take all?

I like this one: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/2010-08-06-RNC-Temporary_Delegate_Selection_Committee.phtml#table


24 posted on 02/09/2012 9:17:38 AM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: achilles2000

Did anyone ever find out what the secret little meeting at the White House between GHW, Jeb and Obimbo was about?


25 posted on 02/09/2012 9:18:55 AM PST by I_be_tc
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To: achilles2000; All

Give me United States Senator Jim DeMint


26 posted on 02/09/2012 9:23:48 AM PST by killermosquito (Buffalo, Detroit (and eventually France) is what you get when liberalism runs its course.)
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To: St. Louis Conservative
Picture this.
The convention is in an uproar. There is no clear winner.
The MSM is mocking those disorganized Republicans.
A chant begins on the floor.

Sarah...

Sarah...

Sarah!


27 posted on 02/09/2012 9:32:57 AM PST by McGruff (Think Brokered Convention)
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To: REDWOOD99

No, it’s not.

It’s not going to happen.

It would be scary if it did happen.

Might as well wish to win the lottery. Same odds.


28 posted on 02/09/2012 9:33:21 AM PST by altura (Pining for Perry but willing to settle for Newt or Santorum.)
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To: altura

It’s not gonna get interesting?


29 posted on 02/09/2012 10:49:47 AM PST by REDWOOD99 ("Everyone should pay taxes. Everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: Graewoulf

Rove:
Mary — you may hate Romney but the polls show most conservatives give the three leading candidates — Gingrich, Romney, Santoru — reasonably high favorables with Romney generally higher than the other two. If all conservatives shared your hatred of him, then he would not have won self-described conservatives in NH, FL, and NV.

And excuse me if I laugh when you say folks on free Republic are not happy with me. Neither is Obama: I’m helping American Crossroads raise $300 million to beat him. Think I’m trying to carry my weight in this election: can the same be said for a bunch of gripers and moaners?

And one last thing: I live in Texas, not Washington.

ME: Hi Karl,
Your description of Free Republic is far from accurate and I wonder how you arrived at that conclusion and if you have even been there.
For me, it is the only place to now get unbiased links and updated political news. Faux news has gone left, unfortunately.

It’s also a venu for productive discourse with other Conservatives, though of course as with any site, there are some trolls and complainers.
Often the “advice’ for the present roster of candidates, offered by concerned, intelligent and informed people, has been spot on and has been sent on to their staff...and in some cases, used by them.
If they have criticized you for your public opinions, it is the same thing you do. Not everyone is going to agree with you, especially if you voice a view that is the opposite of theirs.

We Freepers work to help Conservatives get elected to office. We write letters to the editor. We attend C-PAC conferences.
We are in deeply committed to the fight to defeat Obama, just like you are.

But many of us will no longer compromise our values and first principles for poor GOP elitists choices and if the nominee loses in November, it’ll not be because of anything we’ve done or not done.
It’ll be due to the majority of the ignorant electorate casting their ballot for Hussein..or worse, staying home

A lesson to be learned by the GOP is that to have put their faith in a RINO, an unprincipled, power hungry, phony moderate from Massachusetts, supposedly the only one who is “electable”, was a mistake.
A Reagan-esque Conservative creating stark contrast with the far left, radical President would have been the answer.

A sound recruiting effort to have vetted better Conservative candidates... well in advance.
And there are consequences.
Though I am a lifelong Republican, The RNC is losing support from past donors like me which should be getting their attention.

But it’s not over til it’s over. May God bless Rick and Newt as they continue to fight...all the way to a brokered convention?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2844322/posts

Your friend, Mary


30 posted on 02/09/2012 11:48:23 AM PST by Mountain Mary (Reputation is what others know about you. Honor is what you know about yourself.)
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