Thank you for taking the time when you don’t have it. That’s usually hard for me, too.
The “99%” figure comes from Kathleen Sebelius, not from me, and it’s just a small piece of misinformation she spread on the day she spoke in the WH pressroom. She followed it with “98%” of Catholic women USE—not “used” or “have used at some time in their lives,” etc., which might have made the figures slightly more believable.
Malthus was talking of all population, including the UK’s and the rest of the civilized world. Without the western world’s science, manufacturing, free enterprise system and charity, he might have been correct. But those innovations count, as do, as you mention, war and famine and, I’m sure you’d have added, disease. Another factor, believe it or not, is religion. Some religions, especially when linked to governance, fail to accommodate the growth of its people. Think India, China, Japan, and just about all of Africa, and the Middle East. There’s a reason the West succeeded in sustaining its people.
China may find the one-child policy useful for a while, but it’s going to find itself in Japan’s position within this generation. It’s got an additional problem, thanks to abortion, though—and incredibly overweighted male population, which will reduce their reproduction rate even further. As Japan learned, the one-child policy not only doesn’t work in the safety-net society, it doesn’t work in an industrialized society; and China’s on that path. All that’s left for it at the moment is overmilitarization which won’t go to waste.
You were, in one sense, lucky with contraceptives. If the figure put out by several sources (i.e., not solely by Czar Kathleen) stating that 50% of abortions are performed on contraceptive-using women, then I think it’s safe to say that contraceptives (or their users) aren’t always that lucky. But that figure may also reveal that BECAUSE abortion’s available, diligence in following the instructions accompanying contraceptives isn’t always exercised.
Lastly, though, and I hate to go mystical here, you’re obviously content with the children you have; but you have no way of knowing whom you didn’t have.
The Japanese government has never had a "one-child" policy.
Indeed, the Japanese government at all levels positively encourages people to have children; the problem in Japan is that children are a very, very expensive proposition, not that the government thinks that there are too many.
Actually, I wanted a third child, but my husband was a practicing alcoholic (he generally practiced 6 evenings a week), although he never missed a day of work. Everything I earned went to cover basic bills (mortgage, utilities, food) he could not pay, so we could not afford a third child. And believe me, many women who practice contraception, or even abortion, are in a much worse situation.
I would not worry too much about either the Japanese or Chinese situation. When at least 1/4 of the European population was killed by Bubonic Plague, prosperity actually increased in future decades because there was so much abandoned land and property that became redistributed.
As to the 50% abortion/contraceptive failure rate. Consider that many women practice contraception for many years. Let us say from 20 to 45, there are only 5 years when they are trying to get pregnant or carrying a child, this leaves 20 years times 13 months, or 260 months during which they might have a contraceptive failure. Since there are perhaps 5 days a month when pregnancy might take place then there are around 1,300 days when a mistake or mishap might take place. Thus, the failure rate may actually be fairly low given how many opportunities there are for accidents to take place.