From PPP
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-leads-in-michigan.html
Santorum leads in Michigan
Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum’s taken a large lead in Michigan’s upcoming Republican primary. He’s at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.
Santorum’s rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum’s becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.
Santorum’s winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as ‘very conservative’ at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.
Republican voters aren’t just declining to vote for Gingrich at this point- they don’t even like him anymore. Just 38% have a favorable opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. His numbers are inching back closer to what they were before his surge in the polls began in November.
Michigan is perceived as a state where Romney really has a home field advantage, but only 26% of primary voters actually consider him to be a Michigander while 62% do not. Only 39% have a favorable opinion of George Romney with a 46% plurality having no opinion about him. Romney really doesn’t have some great reservoir of goodwill in Michigan to fall back on.
“Rick Santorum has all the momentum in Michigan right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s important to note that more than 50% of voters say they could change their minds in the next 2 weeks. There’s a lot of room for this race to shift back toward Romney in the coming days.”
PPP surveyed 404 Republican primary between February 10th and 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable........................................................ 32%
Unfavorable .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 49%
Unfavorable .................................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable........................................................ 67%
Unfavorable .................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%
Q5 Do you consider Mitt Romney to be a
Michigander, or not?
Consider him a Michigander ........................... 26%
Do not ............................................................. 62%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clark Durant?
Favorable........................................................ 12%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 73%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Hoekstra?
Favorable........................................................ 52%
Unfavorable .................................................... 18%
Not sure .......................................................... 30%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Scotty Boman, Clark Durant, Gary Glenn,
Randy Hekman, Pete Hoekstra, Peter
Konetchy, Chuck Marino, and Rick Wilson,
who would you vote for?
Scotty Boman ................................................. 6%
Clark Durant.................................................... 9%
Gary Glenn ..................................................... 4%
Randy Hekman ............................................... 2%
Pete Hoekstra................................................. 42%
Peter Konetchy ............................................... 1%
Chuck Marino.................................................. 0%
Rick Wilson..................................................... 1%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 34%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 11%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 12%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 24%
Rick Santorum................................................ 39%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 13%
Q10 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 47%
Might end up supporting someone else .......... 53%
Q11 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 18%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 10%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 17%
Rick Santorum................................................ 18%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 37%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ......................................................... 13%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 27%
Rick Santorum................................................ 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes.................................................................. 27%
No ................................................................... 58%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%
Q14 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical.......................................... 48%
Are not ............................................................ 52%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 46%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 3%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 6%
Moderate......................................................... 18%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 35%
Very conservative ........................................... 38%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 55%
Man................................................................. 45%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 4%
Republican...................................................... 70%
Independent/Other.......................................... 26%
Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 49%
Older than 65.................................................. 25%
Q20 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes.................................................................. 24%
No ................................................................... 76%
Q21 Area Code
231.................................................................. 11%
248.................................................................. 12%
269.................................................................. 10%
313.................................................................. 3%
517.................................................................. 8%
586.................................................................. 6%
616.................................................................. 15%
734.................................................................. 10%
810.................................................................. 5%
907.................................................................. 2%
989.................................................................. 17%
Looks like nothing but a popularity poll. No questions about which candidate has the best plans or is most qualified. And just to skew the results even further, they oversampled women by a 10% margin and the age group of 45 - 65 by an even bigger margin.
So the poll was rigged against Newt by oversampling vindictive middle-aged harpies who will hold Newt’s marital indiscretions against him even though at 68 years old his philandering days are over.
Haven’t you figured out YET that the so-called “polls” goal is ONLY to influence the voters’ choice?
That’s why they are releasing dozens of polls per day. The media invented a frightful concept - electability. “Don’t vote for your candidate ‘cos the media polls say he couldn’t win. Stay home or if you go vote, do it for the candidate we say is the most electable.”
South Carolina is a excellent example. The polls for days and days pretended Mitt will be the winner. We know how that turned out.
Stop posting polls. They are vicious and poison the political debate. The only poll which counts is the voting ballot.