How the US Shale Boom Will Change the World

OILPRICE.com ^ | 2/15/2011 | Gary Hunt

[Gritty]

A funny thing is happening on the way to the clean energy future–reality is setting in. There is ‘incontrovertible evidence’ about the economic growth and job creating effects of America’s unconventional oil and gas production boom – more than 600,000 jobs directly attributable to shale gas development. Even President Obama is praising the job creating benefits of ‘America’s resource boom’. America is getting its energy mojo back and that is good news but not the entire story.

How Much Shale Gas is there in the United States? In July 2011 US EIA released a [Review of Emerging Resources: US Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays produced by INTEK. This is an updated assessment of onshore lower 48 states technically recoverable shale gas and shale oil resources. The assessment found the lower 48 states have a total 750 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas resources with the largest portions in the Northeast (63%), Gulf Coast (13%), and Southwest regions (10%) respectively. The largest shale gas plays are the Marcellus (410.3 trillion cubic feet, 55 percent of the total), Haynesville (74.7 trillion cubic feet, 10 percent of the total), and Barnett (43.4 trillion cubic feet, 6 percent of the total).The INTEK assessment was incorporated into the Onshore Lower 48 Oil and Gas Supply Submodule (OLOGSS) within the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) of NEMS to project oil and natural gas production for the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) to provide a starting point for future work.

Total US recoverable natural gas resources (includes conventional, unconventional in lower 48, Alaska and offshore) totals 4.244 quadrillion cubic feet according to the Institute for Energy Research:

• Enough natural gas to meet US electricity demand for 575 years at current fuel demand for generation levels
• Enough natural gas to fuel homes heated by natural gas in the United States for 857 years
• More natural gas than Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan combined.

The US has Three Times the Proven Reserves of Saudi Arabia in Shale Oil. Global oil shale resources exceed 10 trillion barrels. More than 1.8 trillion barrels of oil are trapped in shale in Federal lands in the western United States in the states of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, of which 800 billion is considered recoverable–three times the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia. The INTEK assessment for EIA found 23.9 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil resources in the onshore Lower 48 States. The Southern California Monterey/Santos play is the largest shale oil formation estimated to hold 15.4 billion barrels or 64 percent of the total shale oil resources followed by Bakken and Eagle Ford with approximately 3.6 billion barrels and 3.4 billion barrels of oil, respectively...

(snip: more at the Link)

[GSWarrior]

Thanks. I grew in western Colorado so I am very interested the subject. Center for American West, although not a conservative group, has done a good job of documenting the history of oil shale in the Piceance Basin.

[thackney]

If you really want to go in depth information about a formation like the Bakken, you can find stuff like this:

http://www.undeerc.org/Price/

But you may need some significant petroleum geology understand to get much from it.

[woodbutcher1963]

“The Southern California Monterey/Santos play is the largest shale oil formation estimated to hold 15.4 billion barrels or 64 percent of the total shale oil resources followed by Bakken and Eagle Ford with approximately 3.6 billion barrels and 3.4 billion barrels of oil, respectively... “

Thackney,
Has CA production also gone up recently ? According to this article they have 4X the available shale oil as either ND and So TX. Obviously, these two have become boom areas. Is the Ca shale oil in areas controlled by the state or federal govt ? Has CA passed some type of fracking moritorium like NY ? Enlighten us ,please.

[Gritty]

Environmentalists are sowing confusion on the subject at all levels. They prefer no action to employment and cheaper gas.

These upstate counties and small towns are economically dying and all the usual suspects want to do is spread hysteria to "protect the environment". These are the same people who economically destroyed the once world-class leather industry in this region in the name of a "cleaner" environment.

Hydrofracking concerns rise to the surface locally

[Monkey Face]

My son lost his job of eight years on Labor Day weekend of 2011. On a whim, in October, he went to a job fair in a town about 30 miles away, filled out the application and added his resume and he was hired by a shale oil company on the spot.

There were 59 other men hired with him, but he and seven others were hired as foremen for the others. He is happy to be employed, and happy to get OT, but the best part is the benefit package. Even though he didn't technically go to work until January, his health and insurance packages were immediate. (I love a happy ending!)

[Monkey Face]

My son lost his job of eight years on Labor Day weekend of 2011. On a whim, in October, he went to a job fair in a town about 30 miles away, filled out the application and added his resume and he was hired by a shale oil company on the spot.

There were 59 other men hired with him, but he and seven others were hired as foremen for the others. He is happy to be employed, and happy to get OT, but the best part is the benefit package. Even though he didn't technically go to work until January, his health and insurance packages were immediate. (I love a happy ending!)

[Sacajaweau]

When they came up with the insane idea of putting windmills in Lake Ontario, I went though the roof. We have a thruway that cuts across the State..from Albany to Buffalo with lands available all along the way. A windmill in an isolated Town makes sense...but cutting through a state?? We went through this with the canals...and then came the railroad. In fact, windmills are already proven to be inefficient and obsolete....and they kill birds...(like I care).

[Past Your Eyes]

We more than make up for it in many other ways. “;^)

[houeto]

We've been hearing about how oil shale is going to supplant petroleum for almost 150 years now.

Damn, you're old! ;-)

[4FreeSpeach]

“”....One of my neighbors in KY drilled a couple of decades ago right under his yard. Cost him a few thousand. He and his immediate neighbors have been enjoying free natural gas ever since......”

This is interesting. Do you know how far down they had to drill?”

In the far Western old suburbs of Cleveland, Ohio it was not uncommon around 1900 to have homes built with free natural gas obtained by the builder pounding an iron pipe a few tens of feet into the ground. This was often done between two houses so that both homes could share the output from one pipe. There are still remnants of these pipes in the ground that cause stories in the papers of natural gas leaks every decade or so. To the East of Cleveland about 25 miles, in Geauga County where the Utica and Marcellus shale deposits start, a not insignificant risk is running into a small pocket of natural gas while drilling a water well even only 50ft deep. The gas output was not much or economical (before fracking) and essentially requires the abandonment and capping of the well.

[thackney]

What I have read so far leads me to believe there has been little to now development of the Monterey Shale play.

A portion of it overlaps the Bakersfield area so I expect that to become developed if it hasn't started already.

Ohio's Utica is expect to yield oil and gas similar to the Eagle Ford, but the exploratory drilling in it has just begun.

[Nifster]

And I was not referring to natural gas but oil portion of shale.....

[thackney]

The oil portion of processing is called refining.

We have been expanding our existing refineries fir decades. We currently have significantly more refining capacity than we consume ourselves. We have become a net exporter of refined products because we refine more than we use.

Give me about an hour and I’ll provide links to the data.

[thackney]

Our falling demand combined with our growing refining capacity and resulted in producing more refined product (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, etc) than we actually use. So now we are a next exportor of the balance of refined products.

Click charts for data source

[Nifster]

And I referred to refineries earlier. Your chart does not show substantial growth in refinery output over the last four years (it in fact is flat). Moreover, my comment about oil part of shale was in response to statistics about natural gas portions of shale.

And while petrol is indeed fungible who in their right mind would send our product overseas when prices in the US are helping to kill the economy.

The reality is that O is effectively shutting down coal. He has cancelled drilling in the Gulf of Mexico ( by US companies). The EPA keeps challenging any effort at producing energy other than solar or wind.

[thackney]

Your chart does not show substantial growth in refinery output over the last four years (it in fact is flat).

Because demand has fallen in the same time frame, not grown. We already produce more than we use. How much over production do think is needed?

Please note this chart above includes natural gas liquids, currently about 2.3~2.5 MMBPD.

Moreover, my comment about oil part of shale was in response to statistics about natural gas portions of shale.

I do not understand, can you clarify?

And while petrol is indeed fungible who in their right mind would send our product overseas when prices in the US are helping to kill the economy.

So you want us to idle more refineries, rather than keep the jobs in the states and help our trade balance?

The reality is that O is effectively shutting down coal.

How does that relate to the topic?

He has cancelled drilling in the Gulf of Mexico ( by US companies).

Some of it yes, and slow down all of it. Which answers your original question on this conversation:

But of course nop company can get a permit to get to the stuff so what difference does it make?

We are getting permits because they are not federal land. Even with the Gulf Slow-down, this shale resouces has resulted in the US total oil production to grow. It is making quite a difference in jobs and energy production.

[Nifster]

good Lord do you purposely misunderstand????

[GraniteStateConservative]

And, yet, we are 10th in per capita personal income.

[thackney]

I'm looking at the words you wrote. If you meant something else, you will have to put that to words.

You started with:

nop company can get a permit to get to the stuff

That is false, we are producing both gas and oil this way from shale and have been for a few years in several locations.

Then you said:

Moreover this country has not built processing plants to increase capacity in ages.

Also false, we have been building gas processing and refinery process units and expanding our capacity for decades. Not a new grass roots refinery but the more cost effect expansion of existing refineries.

You also said:

my comment about oil part of shale was in response to statistics about natural gas portions of shale.

I still cannot decipher what you were trying to say there.

You had stated that the refinery growth had flattened out and also complained that we were exporting products. Which one do you want? We refine more than we use, but you believe we should keep expanding, but not export the excess? How would that work?

[thackney]

It must the fantastic Maple syrup for sale to many others.

I really wasn’t trying to poke fun, I was surprised an area in the US had so little fossil energy resources. Y’all do well with your Seabrook Nuke plant.

In May 2007, New Hampshire adopted a renewable portfolio standard that requires 25 percent of the State’s electricity to be generated from renewable sources by 2025. Do you think this will be primarily biomass/trash power or are they talking about other sources?