Posted on 02/16/2012 4:32:24 PM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.
How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.
A key finding of the model is that economic trends—whether things are getting better or worse than they were a month ago—are more meaningful than the level state of the economy. In other words, whether the unemployment rate is increasing or decreasing is more important than what the unemployment rate actually is.
Another lesson of this model is that, while campaigns and candidates matter, they don't matter all that much. Despite the varying quality and positions of the campaigns and candidates over the last 10 presidential elections, variables beyond their immediate control describe the outcome very well. A brilliant or lucky campaigner is at an advantage, but the net effect of politics and strategy, averaged over the past 40 years, is just the small variation that the Yahoo! model cannot predict.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
If this comes to pass, then we’re living in the last days of The United States of America.
Proverbs 24:20 for the evil man has no future; the lamp of the wicked will be put out.
I beleive BHO will win reelection, retain the Senate and gain seats in the House.
It is not what I want to happen, it is however what I think will happen.
Obama will win California and New York for sure. That gives him like 100 of the 270 needed.
But I don’t think he is loved in the heartland.
Illinois will go for him, too: Chicago is corrupt.
Sounds like some of those famous “climate science” models. It would be nice to know some of the assumptions and other details of this model created by “Yahoo!scientists.” What is a Yahoo!scientist?
Yahoo scientists who probably believe 100% in man made global warming based on their same prediction engine.
Don’t worry. I am in Ohio...there is no way Ohio is going for Obama. Pennsylvania is also there. Pennsylvania will not vote for him either, expecially if Santorum wins the nomination. Actuall, take a look at the 10 states at the top in the Obama column, it seems they have attributed all or most swing states to Obama. This is not likely to happen (at least not without a lot of voter fraud)
Don’t lose hope. God’s in control.
Jeremiah 29:11 For I know the plans I have for you, declares the LORD, plans for welfare and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope.
Missouri, Ohio an Iowa will go GOP and will beat Obama.
When his machine opens up, its not going to be good. This is going to be a battle! He will lie his ass off, and people will believe him. Entitlements and all..
It's about time the Republicans figure out who they will be running against (regardless of who "wins" the Republican contest).
Don’t forget Indiana. No WAY they go dem this year. And Obama can forget about just about the entire South. California is guaranteed Obama, WA state, likely but not solid (If the gay marriage initiative is on the ballot he loses), Oregon still a question mark. I don’t think Obama will take any of the Great Plains states. Minnesota, perhaps, Wisconsin? Michigan maybe. Ohio will tell. They are usually the bellweather. If Ohio goes red, (and I think it will) it’s over for BHO.
Don't see that happening, but I hope you're right.
What all Freepers & anti-Obama gals & guys ought to do, is post on the YAHOO site by the millions. The number is now past 10,000 posts. I posted. Get with it!!!
Oh, I agree.
Just beginning to beleive it is part of the Plan.
Thanks for the verse.
The socialists, one-worlders, racists and sexual deviates who have taken over the education system have successfully turned out several generations of mushy-headed thinkers.
The election of Obama was proof of their achievement.
If Obama is re-elected after what he has done to the country we can figure there will be no turning the nation back to a constitutional republic by the time his second term is complete.
We might be able to protect ourselves and our children from the federal onslaught for another 5 to 10 years but after that it will be over.
The Constitution, the Republic and individual freedom will be lost.
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