US, Germany differ on Israeli ability to hit Iran

The Jerusalem Post ^ | 02/21/2012 | BENJAMIN WEINTHAL

[sukhoi-30mki]

Israeli 707 tanker

[TLI]

The New York Times report cast doubt on Israel’s success chances,

Noooo, get outta here, really?

.

[2ndDivisionVet]

When you’re even more anti-Israel than the Germans, what does that tell you?

[allendale]

The job will be a lot easier if those “tourists” can have a laser or some other electronic signature painted on the targets. Identifying the “tourists” is an obsession with Iranian counter intelligence. The “sacking” of the British embassy by “enraged students” was an attempt to obtain information that might identify the “tourists.” However Iran is not Iraq. They have demonstrated recently some technical sophistication (downing of the drone) and there is little opportunity for “surprise”.

[U-238]

They can do it but again logistics comes into play. This air battle will dwarf the Battle of Britain and War over Europe.

My Thesis:

They may strech the IAF to the limits. Many on these facilities are underground so a 5000 pound bomb will not cut it.A reasonable expectation that by 2010 Iran could pose a serious threat to its neighbors and Israel by creating enough of an inventory of nuclear weapons to deter an Israeli strike.

Take in the Factors:

1.Iran obtains a modern surface-to-air missile (SAM) defense system, such as the Russian S-300 PMU2—Favorit (currently in negotiation)—giving Iran an advanced 2.Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) capability in addition to an advanced SAM Air Defense System.
3.Development of a maritime capability to threaten commercial shipping and Naval Forces in the Persian Gulf and possibly interrupt the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz.
4.Possession of highly accurate short, medium and long range ballistic missiles capable of carrying Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).
5.Use of a number of trained and controlled counter insurgency groups to increase the threat of asymmetric attacks against Israel (part of the scenario of the Turning Point 3 exercises).
A recent study indicates that although the task is daunting, a military strike by Israel is possible utilizing a flight pattern along the Syrian-Turkish border, then over a small portion of Iraq, then into Iran and back the same route.

[SandRat]

I believe Hans Rühleover the NYSlimes.

[U-238]

glimpse at the target facilities provides a picture of what is required to destroy or incapacitate them for a long period of time. It also shows a tremendous effort to provide “ built-in protection” for what it claims is a peaceful nuclear energy program.

The strike force required for this mission:

Target if 2 PG Bombs if 1 PG Bomb

Facility: are carried: is carried:

Natanz 25 F-15F 50 F-15F

Esfahan 3 F-16I 5 F-16I

Arak 4 F-16I 8 F-16I

Total: 25 F-15E + 7 F-16I 50 F-15E + 13 F-16I

• F-15E Empty Weight plus Maximum Fuel = 66,831 lbs;

• F-15E Take off Gross Weight = 81,000 lbs;

• So each F-15E will still be capable of carrying an extra 10,000 lbs, 2 BLU-113; 5,000 lb class warheads (2 GBU-28 PG Bombs).

The total suggested attack force could be 25 F-15E for strike and 7 F-16I, with 38 F-16I for Air Escort/Fighter Sweep and Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD). This means the total allocated strike force against nuclear targets in Iran is 70 aircraft—well within the Israeli practice exercises of 100 air-craft.

[Tucker39]

It gives me great satisfaction to see a photo like that, with the tiny Nation of Israel, geographically speaking, arming themselves and getting prepared to kick butt if necessary. Go Bebe!

[U-238]

Actually,Israel has a huge order for their submarines

[sefarkas]

Why bother with light-water reactors at “... and Iran’s operational nuclear plant Bushehr”? That reactor has little to do with their weapons program except for putting power on the grid for other processes. LWRs are inefficient means of producing weapons grade fuel for weapons. Separating and concentrating are complex. That is why the Iranians are using centrifuges instead.

[allendale]

In the event of an Israeli attack what role will Mr. Obama assign those blue water ships he has placed in the narrow confines of the Persian Gulf? Will they join the attack, violate Iranian airspace to rescue downed pilots? Will the Iranians attack them with shore based anti ship missiles?

[U-238]

The Fifth Fleet will join the attack and keeping the Strait open.The Israelis are betting on that. The Iranians will attack with their anti ship missiles.

[meatloaf]

“Will the Iranians attack them with shore based anti ship missiles?” Hopefully, yes. At that point the Navy is unchained and kicking ass.

[U-238]

If Obama decides to sit on the sidelines he loses the election and violates every strategic treaty we have signed with Israel.

[2ndDivisionVet]

I’m aware of that, but in the public mind German = Nazi, and thus I was saying that Mr. Obama is worse than the Nazis. LOL

[U-238]

OK

[U-238]

OK

[allendale]

And if those ships are attacked with anti ship missiles, will the attack be easily repulsed or will the Navy lose ships and suffer significant causalities? What effect will that have on the American people, and the world? This is the time to consider these questions.

[U-238]

Believe me the Israelis have every conceivable diplomatic and military scenario down to a “t”.

[U-238]

U.S. Navy ships are equipped with anti-missile systems. They can hold out quite easily during and especially attack. The goal of the US Navy and Marines is to get those islands and oil/gun platforms out there in the Gulf out of commission.