Moe
Posted on 02/23/2012 9:05:08 AM PST by SeekAndFind
At least so far, Gallup keeps giving Rick Santorum good news on the electability issue. In their latest poll, both Santorum and Mitt Romney fall within the margin of error against Barack Obama, and Romney actually bests Obama slightly [see update]:
U.S. registered voters are closely divided in their 2012 presidential election preferences between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, and between Obama and Rick Santorum. Romney is slightly ahead of Obama, 50% to 46%, while Obama edges Santorum, 49% to 48%, but neither of these differences is statistically significant.
Santorum and Romney are the current leaders in the volatile Republican primary race. In Gallup Daily tracking conducted Feb. 17-21, 35% of Republican voters nationwide support Santorum, compared with 27% for Romney, 15% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Santorum’s competitive position against Obama in the Feb. 16-19 data represents an improvement compared with interviewing conducted Jan. 27-28, when Obama led Santorum by eight percentage points, 51% to 43%. At that time, Santorum was still trailing both Romney and Gingrich in Gallup’s tracking of Republican preferences for their party’s nomination. After his Feb. 7 wins in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri, Santorum surged to a 10-point lead over Romney. He continues to lead the race among Republicans nationally, and may now be more competitive with Obama among all U.S. voters as a result.
Santorum’s numbers are moving up, while Romney’s remain relatively stable. That is good news for both Republicans, but bad news for Obama. While Republicans fight each other, Obama’s stature should give him more of a lead over the GOP pack. Instead, Obama can’t get to 50% against a split field, which portends a very tough re-election campaign once Republicans settle on the nominee.
Santorum got more good news out of Michigan today, albeit qualified. The new Detroit Free Press-WXYZ poll in the state shows Santorum with a narrow three-point lead over Romney, but that’s a decline from earlier polls in Michigan:
A week of personal appearances, newspaper op-eds, robocalls and television ads has brought Mitt Romney back within striking distance of national frontrunner Rick Santorum in Michigan’s Republican presidential primary, but with six days to go Santorum’s upstart campaign remains on the verge of what could be a defining victory in Romney’s birth state, a Detroit Free Press-WXYZ-TV poll shows. …
Santorum continues to show strength, as the conservative base rallies around him: Among self-described conservatives, he leads Romney 46% to 27% (Romney leads among the much-smaller bloc of moderate voters 51% to 17%.) Men favor Santorum 41% to 29% for Romney, and Santorum has built up double-digit leads over Romney in the western and central parts of the state.
Romney has a double-digit lead in Detroit, which is something to watch on Tuesday night when returns start to come in. If the race remains this close, though, it may not matter as much as one would think. Michigan allocates its 30 delegates on a proportional basis, 28 on how their Congressional districts vote. It may be possible for one of the candidates to win more delegates even if they narrowly lose the overall popular vote, or to break even on delegates. The psychological impact of the win on the following Super Tuesday races is what will be most important, but Santorum might end up benefiting from a split decision.
Arizona, however, is winner-take-all. So far, Romney seems in control of the Arizona primary, and it may be that a split decision in Michigan will make the Arizona contest that much more meaningful on Super Tuesday.
Update: I misread the Gallup results of the head-to-head between Romney and Obama. Romney’s ahead by 4 (still within the MOE). I’ve corrected the opening paragraph and apologize for the error. Thanks to Jon A for pointing it out to me.
Moe is offended....
This is all massive bullshit!....Obama is toast!!!
“Romney actually bests Obama slightly...”
I think it’s true that Romney will stand a better chance of beating Obama as it stands today. My preference in the remaining field remains Newt....but every poll I’ve ever seen says Romney will beat him, the others tie or lose. Zero’s poll numbers are up this week, too.
What a mess. I don’t think we have ever had such dismal choices. Newt is the only one I want to vote for because I know he can get the job ahead of us done. He’s already helped do it once. Mitt turned around the Olympics and was a VC. BFD.
People keep saying the economy is the number one issue - because they can't see past their own secularist noses.
The lack of Judeo-Christian religious morality in this nation is what has allowed our nation to be destroyed.
These polls are meanlingless now, until, the GOP has a candidate. In effect, it is one person verses three or four with the votes split amongst the opponents. As long as his excellency does not score more than 50% against each opponent it is meaningless.
The fact that - at this point in the race - he's not leading by 15 or 20 percent ..... means that he's toast in November. I'm beginning to wonder if we're looking at a landslide akin to Reagan in '84.
The GOP can still manage to shoot themselves in the foot. They're good at that. But I'm pretty confident at this point.
It’s early following the debate, but I hope Romney/Paul gets thumped in MI.
Impossible.
For months freepers have insisted Santorum isn’t enough of a fighter and that he would be dismissed from the stage very soon. As part of the proof, they have run threads making fun of his clothes.
But there he is, pushing along in the frontlines.
“But I’m pretty confident at this point.”...
I agree....Obama is burying himself in his radical agenda, The doofus cannot hear the train coming....
“For months freepers have insisted Santorum isn’t enough of a fighter and that he would be dismissed from the stage very soon. As part of the proof, they have run threads making fun of his clothes.”
I am one of those that believes he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance, but I never made fun of him I never took him seriously enough. Still don’t. He can’t win a general.
Other new polls today:
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Michigan Republican Presidential Primary @Detroit Free Press/WXYZ
Santorum 37, Romney 34, Paul 10, Gingrich 7
NEWTORUM +10 OVER Willard the Lib (BIG thanks again to Newt for not contesting Michigan hence allowing conservatives to help Rick)
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Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary @Franklin & Marshall
Santorum 45, Romney 16, Gingrich 9, Paul 7
NEWTORUM +38 OVER Willard the Lib
At about this time in the 1980 election year, Reagan was behind by DOUBLE DIGITS against Carter.
The rest is history.
“The fact that - at this point in the race - he’s not leading by 15 or 20 percent ..... means that he’s toast in November. I’m beginning to wonder if we’re looking at a landslide akin to Reagan in ‘84.
The GOP can still manage to shoot themselves in the foot. They’re good at that. But I’m pretty confident at this point.”
I agree completely. Santorum is very much electable, and I believe that he’ll be our candidate. I also think a boatload of money will come rolling in once he’s nominated, which will certainly help against 0.
I hope Santorum can rise to the occasion, and reverse himself on some of his less shining moments (no right to privacy? really?). I just think he’s got a better shot than Gingrich, and he certainly has a lot of good ideas and principles.
However - I like Santorum's credentials and think that he'd be eminently adequate as well.
I like Paul's ideas. Too bad he's an unpresidential loon. And with Romney, well, if I wanted to vote for a Democrat, I'd vote for a Democrat.
Still and all, at this point in the race, things aren't looking good for the Dems.
An anecdote - BO came and toured NC just recently. He thinks that the state is still "in play"....hah. However, no one would be seen with him, all the local and state pols had "other commitments". When he spoke at a local HS, he was introduced by someone like the Third Assistant Principal of the school.
It might have had something to do with his tonedeaf-ness. The primary stop on the NC leg of this ballyhooed Bus Tour - you know, the one with the million-dollar tour busses made in *CANADA* of all places?? - was at a local community college. Across the street - literally, across the street, you can see it from where BO was speaking - is a company that manufactures ........ TOUR BUSSES.
Yup. Good old fashioned made in America ones. I'm sure that the irony was not lost on the hundreds of workers at the plant.
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