Skip to comments.Charlie Cook: Fading Chances (GOP will lose)
Posted on 02/25/2012 8:08:08 AM PST by lilyfreeper
It is becoming quite clear that the conservative base of the Republican Party is driving the car. These voters prefer someone from the pull-no-punches brand of conservatism that created the tea party movement in 2009 and handed Republicans their House majority in 2010. Its certainly the GOPs right and choice to do that. The calendar, though, says 2012. The mood of the broader electorateand, specifically, independentsappears to be very different. If you see any of Obamas advisers looking bruised from head to toe, it might be from pinching themselves in disbelief.
Simply put, the passion and energy of the Republican Party today may well fail to produce a nominee with a decent chance of winning in November. My assumption was that Romney would be the nominee and would make a good run. Now, I have begun to doubt both propositions. His odds of winning the nomination are growing longer. And even if he does, he has twisted and turned himself into a human pretzel. Im not sure how electable he is. The alternatives, however, seem even less so.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
I dare you to put that comment on your homepage so that on November 7, 2012 all and one can compare your prognostication on the presidential campaign against actual reality.
Charlie, The only one fading in this race is the obama led socialist democrat party. Take your head out of your rear end and pay attention son. The american people have caught on to who this fraud is despite the coverup by the socialist frauds infested in the MSM. Obama is one and done because even he can’t create enough voter fraud from illegals, acorn and the multitude of ignorant people still backing is sorry rear end to counter the american people.
Charlie Cook, totally misread and mispredicted the Republican massive landslide in 1994. Enough said. Mr. Cook, fine fellow that he is lives in Never/Never land, and....is far from the sharpest knife in the drawer.
Mitt Romney will yield the same negative result as John McCain brought forth in 2008. Pubbies, better come up with a true blue conservative this time. Why? The free nation we live in is at stake!!! A vote for Romney is a wasted vote!!!
Look how that turned out.
These guys are delusional.
The above from wikipedia - so just why should I care what this man - Cook - who hates Republicans - thinks? Thinks about anything?
The guy’s a democrat - he want to undermine us at every turn... Read my above comment on Cook.
You are absolutely right on all counts. Cook is good at what he does, Santorum is a train wreck and Newt is the only candidate that can beat Obama.
“With $5 gasoline, 9% unemployed, and 19% underemployed, I don’t see how Obama is electable”
He will be “electable” because Obama is emerging from “the starting gate” with a good 43-46% of the voting public already “in his pocket”.
This 46% simply -doesn’t care- about “employment” or even “underemployment” because they are either
1. on entitlements or
2. on unemployment (which may keep getting “extended” for years to come), or
3. on welfare.
The “economic rules” that -you- live by, simply don’t apply to them.
With 46% already on his side, all Obama needs is a moderate portion of the so-called “independents” to put him over the top. And a large chunk of those wishy-washy independents are going to get scared off by the social conservatism of someone like Rick Santorum. If the candidate is Romney, expect an attack on his religious beliefs unparalleled in American elective politics.
Did you see the recent poll out of Virginia? Where no less than 51% of those polled preferred Obama to the Republican candidate? In Virginia, of all places? (Aside: in 2008, Obama won VA with 53% of the votes cast.)
This IS NOT going to be an easy election for Republicans, at least on the presidential level. It’s going to be bitter, and it’s going to “turn racial”.
The ‘rats know how to fight, and they will, with any sense of principles or fairness be damned.
It’s because the Republicans won’t “return that fire” with more of the same, that they are going to be in danger of losing....
“Why do all these self-styled experts think that Romney was so much more likely to succeed than Bob Dole or John McCain?”
These wannabe experts often get their cues from professional election consultants- they think the perfect candidate is an empty suit that offends no one and stands for nothing, one that they can build a “narrative” on and keep “on message”. It is also the same sort of candidate that keeps professional consultants election consultants employed and incidentally provides work for tons of so-called experts.
Rasmussen Reports 2/24/12: "Forty-five percent (45%) of Pennsylvania voters approve of how Obama is doing his job. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove. These figures include 24% who Strongly Approve and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. This is a slightly more negative view of the presidents job performance than is found nationally."
Zero is in some serious doo doo in the Keystone State. Possible he can convince voters that $5 gasoline, food price inflation and 9% unemployment is a good thing. Even if they were dumb enough to vote for him last time, I doubt they'll all believe it this time. Selling "Hope n' Change" is going to be more difficult now that he's been Captain of the ship for four years, and none of the changes have been good changes.
I just do not get it: Why do all these self-styled experts think that Romney was so much more likely to succeed than Bob Dole or John McCain?
They know that Romney will fail. That’s why they’re supporting him for the nomination.
Where these analysts fail big time is they perceive 0bama as a left of center moderate rather than the far left radical commie the rest of us sees. It doesn’t really matter who the GOP nominates. The media will say he is too conservative and the voters will consider him a reasonable alternative to the crazy man in the White House.
I've been here long over 2 years, and many of my comments are directed at close races and attempt to discuss realistic scenarios rather than a bunch of silly wishful thinking.
There is no doubt my faith in what passes as the American public these days is very low and can lead to excess pessimism at times - but, like it or not, generally my reality based predictions are accurate and on the mark.
I have little confidence in this crop of candidates. I see Romney as a mushy RINO chameleon who could perhaps win precisely because he stands for nothing. I see Newt as a shot in the dark, but someone who could truly change the dynamic and win the election in a sort of a hail mary play, and Santorum as an afterthought who is only relevant now because he is the only non-Romney still around who hasn't been completely savaged. Rick didn't run a brilliant campaign, it's just no one paid any attention to him because he'd make such a poor general election candidate that no one paid attention. Santorum would lose in the same landslide everyone assumed he would 6 months ago when he was at 1% in the polls and people figured he was in the race for lack of anything better to do or to try to score a better TV contract.
Yup. That is exactly the likely scenario. Roughly 45% of the voters are going to vote for Hussein no matter what. He needs 5%+1 more and he wins his second term. No matter what Rick does to try to change the subject, the election will turn on social policy because he is not deft enough, nor do I believe in his heart really wants, to change the subject.
Instead of gas prices, debt, failed stimulus, etc, we'd end up talking about rubbers, porn, whether women should work or have lots of babies at home, etc. No matter how right Santorum may or may not be on those issues, they are giant losers amongst moderates and all the new, younger, fiscal conservatives who understand we need to do something about the debt, the insane spending levels, etc, but want absolutely nothing to do with someone preaching at them about birth control.
I’m tired of hearing this stupid argument. Romney, Santorum are no Reagan. Santorum is more like ‘I’m not a witch’ Tea Party darling Christine O’Donnell .
All these experts have already forgotten the disrespect Obama showed to Catholics and Christians with the HHS mandate. he literally stared right into Timothy Cardinal Dolan’s eyes and lied to him.
None of these scenarios of the 2012 election have included the fallout over this serious mistake by Obama. I know a lot of good Catholics who managed somehow to convince themselves that it was OK to vote for Obama because he and the Democrats favor the poor people, and anyway, they always vote for Democrats. When I spoke to them in 2008 several admitted some reservations about it. I believe Obama will lose minimally 2-4% of his previous supporters over that issue alone. It ought to be 10%, but there you have it. Just my humble opinion. It will be a silent vote of protest. People do not like to have liberal bullies pushing them around, and this adnimistration’s disrespect for religious convictions is over the top.
Just saw Santorum on C-Span...addressing a group last night in Michigan. His speech lasted about forty minutes...when he finished the crowd was in tears.
As Santorum said as the end of the speech...if the reporters present actually wrote what he said...people would know a bit of truth about this campaign...”but, they won’t”.
Yes, they won’t.
Agree 100%. The numbers do not lie....
A sure winning strategery!