It makes sense to me because I’ve studied the voting Demographics.
Tell me in a 1 on 1, how Newt beats Romney outside the South in states with large Senior, Hispanic, and female populations, the same 3 Demographics that Romney obliterated Newt with in NH, FL, and NV?
Additionally, please tell me how Newt gets to 270 Electoral Votes? I’ve studied the voting Demographics over a dozen states (mostly battlegrounds). You wanna go county by county, we can do that. Of the 12 Battlegrounds excluding OH, FL, VA, NC, and IN which is essentially must wins for Republicans to win, tell me where that last state comes from (NH, PA, MI, WI, IA, NM, CO, NV).
Is Newt going to win NH? Doubt it. In PA, sure he’ll run higher margins than McCain in Lancaster, York, and the other conservative parts of the state, but Newt will NOT carry Delware, Berks, Bucks, Montgomery, and the surrounding Philadelphia suburbs, which will hinder any chances at winning the state. Newt has shown no strength in the Midwest or in CO, and Tancredo hammered Newt on his immigration stance. Newt has been crushed by Hispanics in NM and NV where even a Rubio might not even make a difference.
As for Santorum, except for NH, he’s got excellent chances to sweep ALL of those states. PA, MI,WI,IA and the entire midwest might actually swing red. He has the strong backing of CO’s most popular politician, and he is not toxic which the groups that have been turned off by Newt (Seniors, Hispanics, Women).
But what do I know? We’ve heard after all that the Election this year will be a phone-in after the debates to choose an American President. /sarc
It’s complete nonsense for you to base your demographic analysis off of Florida. Why don’t you look at South Carolina instead?
I’ll tell you how Newt wins. The same way Clinton and Reagan won. The economy is in bad enough shape by the election that people simply want something different. That’s the same way any Republican is going to win. Newt, Rick, Mitt, whoever.
Look back at the polls from April 1992. Bush41 had a 10 pt lead on Clinton. I’m sure many dems were saying “how will Clinton win?”. Look back at the polls from the spring of 1980. Carter had a double digit lead over Reagan. Many were probably saying “how can Reagan win?”
Both of them won because eventually Americans had enough of the incumbent.
If we get to the fall and gas is $5 a gallon, inflation is on the rise, job growth has slowed, stagnated, or even started to go negative, Newt will have a very good chance to win, close to as good as anyone else.
Seriously, where do you think Obama will be if gas is at $5? Where do you think he’ll be if unemployment heads back up to 9% or more? If the market drops 10%? 20%? More?
Newt could well win on gas prices alone.
As for Rick sweeping the midwest. the latest MI poll vs Obama shows Obama with a 26 pt lead over Rick, the latest WI poll has him up by 11, and the latest PA poll has him up by 8, so I don’t know if I’d say he has an excellent chance of sweeping all of them.
But look, if gas goes up to the high $4, past $5, Newt will have a great chance of winning, as will any Republican.