What was the dynamic that helped Santorum win Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri?
Answer is, he performed well in the most recent debate before those contests, even though it happened a couple weeks before, and his two opponents Newt and Mitt were training fire on each other, leaving Santorum unscathed.
Which is exactly the position Newt is in now. Mitt and Santorum are sliming each other and Newt performed well, looking quite statesmanlike even, in the last debate before Super Tuesday. I think the best thing for Newt, acknowledging that it’s too late for him to win either AZ or MI, would be a split decision. It would keep Mitt and Rick at each other’s throats and would keep the race uncertain, without a clear frontrunner, leaving an open field.
Entering into a media environment without debates is also uncharted territory for this primary. So far, when the media has nothing to report on but speeches and interviews, it appears that Newt continues to retain the rhetorical advantage over his opponents in that arena. You have to imagine people who still haven’t made up their mind are still going to be looking for more media on the candidates. Without debates to report on, the media will be giving more coverage of speeches and interviews and they may play a more important role.
There are also of course always gaffes to watch out for. I don’t think we saw any major gaffes from the candidates this week that would tip the scales, but both Mitt and Santorum seem more gaffe-prone than Newt. And again those will the vacuum in media coverage left empty by no debates to report on.
“What was the dynamic that helped Santorum win Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri?
Answer is, he performed well in the most recent debate before those contests, even though it happened a couple weeks before, and his two opponents Newt and Mitt were training fire on each other, leaving Santorum unscathed.”
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As you get further down the road, the situation begins to harden, along with the numbers. I don’t know why Newt fell so precipitously after South Carolina. We could speculate on that. But he DID fall and he has not risen again, nor will he rise in these two upcoming primaries where he will finish in single digits in all likelihood.
Newt has no likely, plausible path back to contention. The longer he goes without a victory, indeed without even a good showing, the less likely he can make a case that he should be nominated to the dwindling pool of remaining voters. That is just the truth of the matter.