It’s not a two-man race. That’s Romney/Santorum/RINO media spin. The primary is as wide open a race as it’s ever been. A Romney win in MI absolutely does NOT mean it’s all over. I’m surprised any one but a Romneybot would make such a ridiculous claim. Only 2 of the 25 most conservative states as ranked by Gallup have voted yet. Those states could end up looking a lot more like Georgia, with Romney placing in 3rd behind Newt and Rick.
Women are far more liberal/moderate on all political issues than men, and as we’re discovering in this primary, that includes Republican women. If you think you need the women vote to win the general election, then you need a liberal/moderate like Romney.
As far as I know, the Republican president rarely wins the women vote anymore even when they do win the election. Conservatives are fighting against the gender gap. But our strategy has always been to increase turnout and the margin of victory among the groups we’re strong in to counter that.
Bottom line is looking at polling now to determine what the polls will show in 9 months is pointless. Why don’t you pull up polls from 9 months ago, May 2011, and tell us if they represent how people are going to vote this month?
“Women are far more liberal/moderate on all political issues than men...” True, but it is the vast Grand Canyon-type gap that is at issue here. No candidate with such a vast gap in gender among primary voters has ever gone onto win a Presidential election. If Santorum can come close to narrowing the gender gap, he wins in MI and possibly in AZ, and he’ll beat Obama by the same logic.