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You don’t seem to be accounting for the fact that most states are not winner-take-all. It takes a whole lot more calculating to do the delegate math than you’re doing. You’re also making the strange assumption that Santorum and Newt’s standings in the polls are going to stay static. That’s highly unlikely. Santorum had his chance and blew it in a big way. His momentum is gone. The voting on the last day swung against Santorum. In fact, Newt got a BIG bump in the last-day voting, indicating major Newtmentum:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/mi?hpt=hp_t1

Newt got 11% of the last-minute vote. He only got 3% in the few days before that, and only 8-6-7% in the months before that. So Newt had way more support in Michigan on Monday than his average before in the entire campaign. Santorum meanwhile collapsed...throughout 2011 he went from 41-55-50% and finally only 31% on the last day of voting.

Let’s also not forget that 9% of the voters in Michigan were crossover Democrats and voted HEAVILY for Santorum. He got 53% of them vs. 18% for Romney, 17% Paul, 3% Newt. Do you think Santorum’s going to get that crossover boost in the upcoming states? He certainly didn’t do well in Arizona without such gimmicks.

Well, here’s the reality.

NH, IA, FL, MO, MI, MN, CO, NV, AZ, ME, SC are gone. That’s 12 states. So far Newt has 1.

Score is 7 Romney. Santorum 4, Newt 1.

Newt’s not gonna win Wyoming. That makes 13 states down. Romney with 8, Santorum 4, and Newt 1.

That means that Newt has a state deficit of 7 on Romney. He has 37 states to make up that deficit. In order for him to beat Romney in states, Romney cannot win more than 15 of the remaning states.

States left:

NY, VT, NJ, CT, MA, DE, MD. That’s 7 right there. Romney needs only 8 more.

To get to 15 -

HI, CA, IL, NM, ID, MT, OR, VA and WI! That gives him an unassailable lead vs Newt.

This is what Newt is up against. Newt needs to beat Romney in one of OR, MT, ID or NM in order to win the nomination, and he can’t afford to lose anywhere else.

“You’re also making the strange assumption that Santorum and Newt’s standings in the polls are going to stay static”

Nonsense. I outline a variety of assumptions based on polling. Even Newt at his best isn’t going to get more than 14 states vs Romney. It’s too late for him at this point. We are already 1/3rd in and Newt has exactly one state.

“Santorum had his chance and blew it in a big way.”

Uh, no. He tied Romney in MI - and picked up 15 delegates to Newt’s zero on the night. I’m sorry, you don’t get to write the narrative. At the end of the day, it’s Santorum 15, Newt, 0. The last time Newt picked up a delegate was in South Carolina.

“Newt got a BIG bump in the last-day voting”

All the way up to 7 percent in MI?

“Newt got 11% of the last-minute vote. He only got 3% in the few days before that”

So you’re proud of the fact that your man almost surged up to Ron Paul levels? Do you even hear yourself?

And how did that work out for team conservative? First time we’ve lost a state because of vote splitting. Hey, facts are facts. So far the states lost because of conservative vote splitting - is one, and that’s because of Newt.

“Let’s also not forget that 9% of the voters in Michigan were crossover Democrats and voted HEAVILY for Santorum.”

And? Santorum won among conservative + very conservative. As he did in CO, MN and MO. Look at the counties. Santorum did better in the more conservative counties.