I would agree it's highly unlikely we will be a net exporter in four years, but I do think we could significantly reduce our dependency on the middle east.
With that in mind, if we consider Canadian and Mexican imports stable, and group them with domestic sources, it brings your 9 million barrels a day down to, I believe, less than 5 million. (Please correct me if I've gotten the wrong data).
Newt claims the Gulf could return to 400,000 barrels per day and Alaska could supply 1.7 million barrels per day, chipping away another 2.1 million... and leaving only about 3 million barrels per day to be completely energy independent of everyone other than Mexico and Canada.
I'm not sure how to figure out how much the anticipated 700,000 barrels a day from the Keystone pipeline would further decrease that number since I don't know how much of that would reflect an increase in Canadian production vs just change the transportation method.
This brings me back to my previous question: Also, what do you think would be the effect of a "real push" towards being energy independent and a "real push" to reverse Obama's economic policies on futures speculation? I might ask essentially the same thing by saying, "how much of the current high price of crude is driven my the anticipation of potential interruption of supply due to the political instability of our import suppliers and by the perception that Obama's policies are going to destroy the value of the dollar?"
I would still contend that it is neither implausible nor dishonest to hold up $2.50 gas as a valid campaign platform.
Agreed, but I would look at OPEC imports rather than just focus on Middle East. Venezuela is less a friend than Saudi Arabia. Nigeria is more willing to sell but far more unstable.
With that in mind, if we consider Canadian and Mexican imports stable, and group them with domestic sources, it brings your 9 million barrels a day down to, I believe, less than 5 million.
In my opinion, Canada should be considered long-term stable and expected to grow. Mexico while a past reliable supplier is also a continued falling production and politically unstable. But for the sake of discussion call it a wash at 4 million per day.
Newt claims the Gulf could return to 400,000 barrels per day and Alaska could supply 1.7 million barrels per day, chipping away another 2.1 million...
From the time of new areas released for seismic survey, data analysis, lease auctions, acquiring new drill rigs, exploration, review of exploration results, engineering/design of wells & topside facilities, fabrication, construction, tie-ins and start up...
No way complete in 4 years. I've been involved in very rushed fast-tract projects for oilfield production. I have several years in Alaskan North Slope Engineering and Construction. I don't say that lightly, there are just too many steps and too much work to be done prior to oil flow.
I'm not sure how to figure out how much the anticipated 700,000 barrels a day from the Keystone pipeline would further decrease that number since I don't know how much of that would reflect an increase in Canadian production vs just change the transportation method.
It is mostly increase production, but it will offset some rail traffic. Maybe 600 MPBD? Maybe use 700 for the discussion.
n: Also, what do you think would be the effect of a "real push" towards being energy independent and a "real push" to reverse Obama's economic policies on futures speculation?
It will decrease prices. If all this is done it would decrease prices significantly outside of any other changes.
The catch is, I don't know what else will change in the next 4 years, but I would bet my house that everything else effecting the oil market will NOT stay the same for the next 4 years, especially if the US made these drastic changes. The amount of steel, copper, heavy equipment, yard fabrication etc for your production levels would have a measured increase in demand in several countries around the world.
I would still contend that it is neither implausible nor dishonest to hold up $2.50 gas as a valid campaign platform.
We disagree and that is okay. But understand my viewpoint is based upon decades of related experience. I've been involved in emergency rebuilds from plant explosions, and other very fast track oil field projects. I understand this area fairly well.
Wait a minute, I read these as additions, not new totals.
Did you mean additional or totals from these areas?