Super Tuesday Delegate Projection Update (Predicts Gingrich will get more delegates than Santorum.)

NY Times ^ | 3/5/12 | Nate Silver

[BCrago66]

There has been enough movement in the polls in the past 24 hours to warrant revisiting our delegate projections from Sunday. I now have Rick Santorum trailing Mitt Romney by about 150 delegates, and also falling behind Newt Gingrich, who has some favorable momentum in the delegate-rich Southern states.

[BCrago66]

With the New York Times, I'm always on guard for bias, particularly regarding a political article. But Nate Silver is in my experience a pretty good analyst, and I think there's less chance of bias when liberals are writing about Republican primaries (as against a Republican v. Obama.)

Anyway, the gist of the article is because of recent polling surges in GA, TN & (to a lesser extent) a few other states, Gingrich should get more delegates tomorrow than Santorum. But, alas, Romney still gets the lion's share.

[CainConservative]

Of course, the New York Slimes is pimping Obama-lite Willard for now over our strongest So-Con.

The libs there HATE So-Cons with a passion.

[Bailee]

Bring popcorn and plenty of drinks tomorrow night. Check your personal feeling at the door. Tomorrow gonna be smoking on FreeRepublic.

[org.whodat]

ROFLOL, people were voting all last week.

[itsahoot]

Chum for the dumb.

[BCrago66]

Yeah, for the most part for Romney & Gingrich, but sweater-boy got a few scraps, I’m sure.

[CainConservative]

We’ll know tomorrow who sweeps the golden ticket:

Ohio/Tennessee/Oklahoma

If it’s Rick, Newt must leave.

[BCrago66]

Just like Rick left when Newt took South Carolina?

[Mariner]

I say whoever has the fewest COMMITTED delegates after the vote is counted tomorrow must leave the race, not some imaginary whoopee about whether Santorum is going to win Ohio, TN and OK.

He's not.

[CainConservative]

I believe Rick will add wins in Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee to his Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado victories.

And perhaps an Alaska and a Dakota tomorrow.

That would be NINE states to Newt’s basically TWO home states.

But since the goal is to beat Willard the Lib for the nomination, Newt will have to drop out Wednesday and endorse Rick for that to happen.