Posted on 03/06/2012 8:54:32 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Pundits have talked for weeks about the possibilities for a brokered convention after having seen one of the more volatile nominating contests in memory. Neither party has had a brokered convention for 50 years, however, and it’s not because we haven’t had competitive primaries in that time. Usually, voters tend to hit a tipping point and start getting behind a leading candidate, which effectively ends the competitive phase of a nomination fight and puts the party on a glide path to a unifying convention in the late summer. That point gets reached when one candidate simply starts winning often enough to make the outcome clear.
That may be starting to happen now, if Gallup’s latest poll is an indication. Mitt Romney has jumped to his largest national lead in weeks as Super Tuesday arrives:
Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by 16 percentage points in Feb. 29-March 4 Gallup Daily tracking of national Republican registered voters’ preferences for their party’s nomination. Romney is at 38%, Santorum 22%, Newt Gingrich 15%, and Ron Paul 12%. Santorum led Romney by 10 points as recently as Feb. 20.
Romney’s current 38% of the vote is the highest percentage any candidate has obtained since Gallup Daily tracking of the race began on Dec. 1, and comes in the wake of Romney’s wins in the Feb. 28 Michigan and Arizona primaries. Romney won the Washington state GOP nonbinding caucuses on Saturday, but that victory would have had only a limited impact on the latest five-day rolling national average, which extends back through last Wednesday.
The March 6 slate of 10 primaries and caucuses in the so-called Super Tuesday states has the potential to once more alter the national standings of the candidates. Romney is widely expected to lose in Gingrich’s home state of Georgia, and faces a tough challenge in Tennessee and Oklahoma. Romney is likely to win in his home state of Massachusetts and the contiguous state of Vermont. The critical state will be Ohio, partly because pre-election polling shows the race there to be very close and partly because it is considered to be a bellwether state that will be important in this fall’s election.
Romney’s strong momentum nationally in recent days suggests that he may do better than expected in the 10 Super Tuesday states.
In my column for The Week, I warn that both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have narrow windows of opportunity to prevent that tipping point from being reached today:
The Super Tuesday schedule also favors Romney. He should get an overwhelming victory in Massachusetts, his home state, where no other candidate has seriously competed for the 41 delegates. The same is true with Vermont and its 17 delegates. Virginia should have been competitive, but neither Newt Gingrich nor Santorum qualified for the ballot in the Old Dominion, and a majority-vote win over Ron Paul would allow Romney to claim all 49 delegates. That gives Romney a big springboard toward winning a majority of the delegates at stake today. …
Santorum has a better opportunity to slow Romney down and extend the race. Oklahoma has 43 delegates up for grabs, and Santorum has a big lead in the polls — although no surveys have been conducted since the Arizona debate. If Santorum can maintain that big lead in Oklahoma, he can get a significant haul of delegates. But if Romney can ride the Sunday endorsement of Sen. Tom Coburn to a boost in the state, that delegate allocation could become a wash. In Tennessee, Santorum still has a small edge and could get a majority of the state’s 58 delegates.Of course, Oklahoma isn’t really the critical state for Santorum. He needs to win Ohio, a middle-America, Rust Belt state where Santorum’s emphasis on blue-collar economics should find the most resonance. Like Michigan, Santorum ran up big polling leads in Ohio in mid-February, only to lose them as the actual primary contest approached. Polling in the last 48 hours shows Ohio as a toss-up. A narrow win won’t help Santorum outside of the psychological edge, either, as his organizational difficulties last year left him unable to compete for as many as 18 of the state’s 66 delegates. Depending on which congressional districts he wins and loses, a small popular-vote win statewide for Santorum might still result in Romney winning a significantly larger number of delegates.
Most eyes will stay on the results in Ohio and Tennessee tonight. If Santorum can hang on and win both those states, he will still trail Romney in delegates (and possibly Gingrich as well), but will convince donors to keep funding his campaign as the best alternative to Romney. If Romney edges Santorum in either state — but especially Ohio — Santorum has a difficult sale to make on his continued presence in the race. Primary campaigns usually hit a tipping point where Republican voters and donors begin to flock to an undisputed leader in order to bring the fight to a quick conclusion. If Santorum can’t keep Romney from claiming to be that undisputed leader on Super Tuesday, he may exhaust the patience of both groups.
I’m on assignment today and tomorrow and won’t do much blogging in my normal slots. However, I will be on the Hugh Hewitt show tonight as returns come in, and I will be blogging tonight as well to help Allahpundit on analyzing the results.
"Mucho bad news, alright - BAD NEWS FOR ROMNEY!"
That was my thought. The guy's been running for 5 years, has probably spent $100 mllion by now, has the GOP establishment and mainstream media squarely behind him.....and he can't crack 40 percent?
Sounds pretty bad to me! Hank
Santorum and his supporters have been unwittingly helping Romney win the nomination all along by fooling conservatives into thinking he was a viable option. Romney has been piling up delegate while Rick and his supporters maintained the illusion that he was winning meaningful contests and denying Romney delegates. Let me repeat this again for all you thick headed Santorum supporters: HE WASN’T WON ANYTHING BUT NON BINDING CONTESTS AND UNCOMMITTED DELEGATES. Thanks for diverting attention from a conservative who had real plans and a real chance to win.
Has anyone seen any financial info for the campaigns or super pacs? Money is the life blood of a campaign. I know the Gingrich super pac got an infusion a few days ago. The FEC data ends Jan. 31, 2012
Cry me a river.
** President Newt Gingrich-”Our beloved republic deserves nothing less.”
Romney = second Obama term. Time to go out and enjoy life before November.
“Santorum has the chance to stop romney. He’s a solid conservative.”
He is a big government attack Lhasa Apso. If he could add Hensarling to the ticket . . . It would be even funnier.
Big government is fine by Santorum supporters. As long as a “moral” person is at the helm.
You did the right thing, and that is all anyone can do. Thank you.
Whoever is behind Wednesday, be it Rick or Newt, absolutely MUST step aside and endorse the other or it will be too late!
Post of the day.
JimRob should endorse only the one with the chance to beat Romney.
“Big government is fine by Santorum supporters. As long as a “moral” person is at the helm.”
Yup. Same mistake as all the DHS joy and enthusiasm. The US has become everything the Founders fought, killed and in some cases died to prevent.
The impossibility of Romney winning in the general with such low numbers in his own party supporting him, is becoming obvious to everyone. A true cynic would think he stays in it to ensure Obama has another term. I sincerely believe that half or more of the 38% he allegedly has is made up of those who have bought into the crazy idea that Romney is the most electable candidate.
There was another thread this morning with a post that listed all the reasons Romney can’t win in the general, and it made so much sense it was enough to convince me that the GOP-e is in it to lose, or will insist on a different nominee at the convention if they decide leaving Obama in for four more years presents an existential threat to the nation.
A solid conservative would not have been trying to destroy the pro-life movement in 1996, when the rest of us were trying to defeat Clinton and the Gingrich revolution was still fighting.
This is an old poll already. Romney down 4, Santorum up 2 in today’s tracking:
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
JimRob has already endorsed.
Yeah, yeah. The Perfect Candidate is not running.
If people other than GA don’t vote Santo (or Paul in VA) today, we have Romney. Face it.
Turnout today here in Virginia — absolutely pitiful. I was one of TWO in the voting room today just now at about 3 p.m.
No one wants to come out and vote since neither Santorum nor Newt are on the ballot.
Watching this in the general election will be nauseating.
whatever; I just hope you enjoy and don’t complain about your “pain pill” courtesy of Obamacare.
And the endorsement didn’t seem to mean much to her since she’s backing Santuckabee.
That’s it?
Trying to destroy the pro-life movement by removing life from the Republican Party Platform is merely, being not “perfect” ?
From pushing Specter for President in 1996 to Romney in 2008, Santorum doesn’t really lose no matter what the result is, as long as it isn’t Gingrich.
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