VANITY- DELEGATE NIGHTMARE!

Real Clear Politics ^ | March 7, 2012 | Vanity

[georgiagirl_pam]

R- 404 S- 161 G- 105 P- 61

OMG, this is a nightmare. PLEASE GOD, TELL ME HOW I AM WRONG!

Go to the RCP delegate count page. I am using their numbers, they may be off a little but not much. Print it off. Add up the number of total delegates left (bound and unbound, winner take all and proportional.) You will get 1475. It takes 1144 to win. So right now:

Romney needs 740 Santorum needs 983 Gingrich needs 1039 Paul needs 1414

That means:

Romney needs to win 50% of the delegates left to clinch.

Santorum needs to win (get this!!) 66.66% of the delegates left to clinch

Gingrich needs to win 70% of the delegates left to clinch.

Now, go through the list, be intellectually honest with yourself, and pull out the delegates that you know Romney will win, no matter who and how many candidates are still in or out.

[georgiagirl_pam]

SCREAMING!!!! What does this tell us? What do you make of it? I personally think that the only way we can stop Romney is for all to stay in, fight as hard as we can, take it to the convention, let the delegates cast their first votes and then be released to vote for whomever. It's either that or lay down and get behind Romney now. (gag, gag) Please, let's all have an intellectually honest conversation, trying to put aside our passion for our individual candidates and see if there is any way out of this. Thanks for all opinions :)

[Irenic]

I agree—they all need to stay in. I don’t believe all Gingrich supporters will jump behind Santorum (I won’t—I will skip the primary). I don’t believe Santorum voters will all jump behind Gingrich and I think most Paul supporters won’t get behind Gingrich, Santorum or Romney.

I am of the mind they all need to stay in and fight as hard as they can. Go Gingrich!

[Mr. K]

TAKE IT TO THE CONVENTIONS!!!!

I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR A YEAR NOW WE NEED A TEA PARTY MARCH ON GOP HEADQUARTERS

LET’S DO IT THEN

[newzjunkey]

Your analysis is the same as a couple others I've seen or heard. Newt getting out or Santorum getting out will add some to Romney's total as well as the other non-Romney so it's looking like a losing proposition.

The game now is for every non-Romney to steal as many delegates from Romney as possible. After the first ballot, delegates can do other things also there are a lot of uncommitted delegates.

This is why Ron Paul's campaign has been known to work to get delegates favorable to him registered for other candidates.

[berdie]

later

[parksstp]

you just undermined your own argument.

If Santorum/Gingrich stay in, in these Southern states where proportional applies, they’re going to split, and that’s going to allow Romney to get more delegates than he should. Look at OK yesterday. The same is going to play out in the other Southern states.

Santorum/Gingrich must combine. Then the person can sweep the south and midwest and get back to an even race. If they both stay in, proportional allocation will destroy them.

Romney doesn’t have to get 1,144. He can get to 1,044 and whatever undecided Supers there are will probably jump on board with him if he has more votes/victories if both Newt and Santorum remain in the race but are several hundred delegates behind.

It’s now or never. Someone’s got to get out, or Romney takes it. If Gingrich exited the race prior to Friday, the whole dynamic would change.

[Mountain Mary]

If you live in one of the upcoming primary states, contact the Santorum or Newt campaign and tell them you want to help.

You’re right georgia girl. We need to fight.

[doc1019]

Please excuse my ignorance. But if the delegates vote their states, and Romney is the overall candidate, how can there be a second vote?

[rfp1234]

Santorum needs to win (get this!!) 66.66% of the delegates left to clinch

President Baracchio is laughing, quietly muttering 'Thank you, Satan".

[napscoordinator]

All stay in. This is our best option. It won’t be easy with that dang GOP establishment wanting Romney so badly, but our best chance is to fight to the death for either Newt or Santorum at the convention. I am interested in seeing a convention anyway and how it works. I think it would be a great education for some of us not familiar to the process. I still would like a Gingrich/Santorum ticket so that we are guaranteed 16 years of Republican Presidency.

[FerociousRabbit]

I am a Newt supporter but I just don’t see a path for Newt to capture the nomination before Tampa. His southern strategy didn’t work — he lost Tennesee and Oklahoma and he needed both of them.

Santorum can come closer but it is highly unlikely that he can hit the magic number any more than Newt can.

I think Newt and Santorum can/should both stay in, however, just to deny Romney as many delegates as possible. Get everyone to the convention and hope for a miracle. The more splintered the convention with nominees the more unusual the miracle may be.

[svcw]

Totally agree, the thought of Romney as the nominee make me want to puke.

However, Romney won in a state with no competition, others are liberal or mormon heavy, it's not the case from here on out (I think).

We must go to a brokered convention, there are so many uncommitted delegates, even if Romney squeaks by using total delegates he still might not make it.

If he does win, I will not vote for him - period.

see tag line

[Linda Frances]

I took the pledge and put my name in as a delegate. I pray I get it.

[BCrago66]

I don’t get why you’re freaking.

Even if your calculations are correct, Gingrich plus Santorum will stil likely win a clear majority of the delegates. So on a second ballot, the candidate with less delegates recommends that his delegates support the other, and thus either Gingrich or Santorum prevail over Romney.

But that assumes that we need a second ballot. What your analysis ignores is that many of the delegates awarded so far - particularly to Santorum - are “soft,” not hard. Thus, if the delegate-momentum and popular vote-momentum swings Newt’s way, many of those delegates will vote for Newt on a first ballot, in order to defeat Romney.

[georgiagirl_pam]

At the convention, if there is not one candidate that got enough delegates to clinch after the first vote, then all delegates are released to vote for whomever they want to in the subsequent tries. Confusing convention rules, but I think we all need to start pressing for some written details in those rules RIGHT NOW!

[bushinohio]

Wouldn't a brokered convention be most beneficial to Romney? Wouldn't they just make the case that he has won the most states and the most delegates and therefore deserves the nomination?

[svcw]

Romney is not well liked, I do not think he would win because of that.
But hey, what do I know. ;-)

[doc1019]

So, if he has enough votes (delegates) based on the way states have voted to get the nomination on the first vote, he is in?

Sorry to keep bothering you, just need to know.

[georgiagirl_pam]

You are not being honest with yourself, sorry. Go through the list. Just “pretend” that it is only Mitt and Rick. Then add up the delegates that you know Mitt will win, no matter what.

Do you REALLY think that Rick can win NY or NJ or CA or MD, just to name a few against Mitt?

Proportional or winner take all, doesn’t matter. I am looking at percentage of total needed.

[bushinohio]

That's my biggest worry about a brokered convention. The establishment has been pushing him so hard I could see him just being handed the nomination because it was supposed to be that way all along.