Oh I do. To the point I’ve studied all of the voting demographics of most of the states.
To be sure, a Newt candidacy would at a minimum carry every McCain state from 2008. North Carolina and Indiana are also pretty much being ceded by the Democrats.
The problems come in FL, VA, and OH. Newt was slaughtered along the I-4 corridor by Romney and did absolutely horrible among Seniors, Hispanics, and Women. While it wouldn’t kill him in the states I just mentioned, he would almost be forced to be a Floridian on the ticket just to be safe. Santorum, who would also look to a Floridian, at least in the demographics was not poisonous with women, he just didn’t really run in FL since it was WTA. Both would kill in the Panhandle where Obama did poorly, but FL is always won along the I-4 corridor. 53% of the voting electorate in FL is female.
Then there’s OH. Santorum won incredibly strong in the areas the Republican need to win to offset the margins in Cleveland. In fact, Santorum was so strong with his margins in the conservative parts, he nearly won the state despite huge deficits in both Cleveland and Cincy. I don’t think either Newt nor Romney are going to perform at the level they need to to carry OH, which would need to be closer to 2004, where Bush ran up a 371,000 vote advantage outside of Kerry’s 200,000 vote advantage in Cleveland. Last time, McCain and Obama ran dead even outside of Cleveland. That won’t be enough.
Then there’s VA. Santorum would pick up the areas McCain did less well than Bush from 2004. I also think Santorum has performed well in the cities and suburbs than Newt, who has been blown out by Romney everywhere a major population center exists. That doesn’t bode well for Northern VA.
But assuming all this and all the states above, which equate to 266 Electoral votes, there remains 1 Additional state both will have to carry to win, and it must come from one of the following (NH, PA, MI, WI, IA, NM, CO, NV).
New Hampsire is out for everyone, except Romney. Santorum has an edge in PA, but Gingrich would not do as well in the Philly suburbs (Berks, Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks, Chester). MI is probably out for everyone. WI is a toss-up, but Santorum’s union past helps him more than it helps Newt here. IA is a prime state for Santorum to carry if there are enough Republicans that haven’t fled the state due to unemployment. NV is also probably out for both. Santorum, however, showed strength in Colorado and has the backing of Tom Tancredo for being strongest on the immigration stances. NM is a toss-up, but with high numbers of Seniors, Hispanics, and Women, may pose just as much a problem for Newt as it would in Florida.
Because of the battleground states and the voting demographics, I give the edge to Santorum to get to 270. I don’t see how Newt gets there.
Thank you for that. While I don’t completely agree with your conclusions, it is always good to see peoples reasoning.
What is your assessment of how would the picture change if either the speaker or the senator dropped out and took the VP slot?
Tag line shows my preference of which way around, of course!
My opinion, Newt gives up FL and puts Santorum on as V.P. which gets him PA and 1 or 2 other of the toss-up states. FL is hopeless for the Republicans this year and they need a strategy that does not include it. They are simply not going to bring any Hispanic Obama voters over. The racial identification based on his coloring is too great a factor to overcome. Democrats understand how important light brown skin is to their election strategy of getting both black and Hispanic votes. Liberal, light-brown-skinned candidates are their dream candidates. Any they can find will rocket to the top of the Democrat party faster than Obama did. The visual coloring means more than ethnicity or language to getting these voters which is why Rubio would not even help the Republicans with Hispanics much against Obama.
Of course you don't. That's because your analysis is based on an unrealistic overestimation of Santorum's actual appeal in the voting populace at large, and a concurrent unestimation of Newt's. I didn't take it very seriously, to say the least.