To: nitzy
He doesn't need 46% of the vote. He needs 46% of the delegates. That could take as little as 30% of the vote depending on how many other candidates are running and how he does in winner take all states.
Furthermore, there are only around 200 delegates available in WTA primaries left. Hardly enough to support your 30% number.
Don't count California in your WTA column, it is WTA by Congressional District which means it is basically a proportional state.
To: SoConPubbie
Don't count California in your WTA column, it is WTA by Congressional District which means it is basically a proportional state. Bzzzt. See South Carolina, WTA by district. Newt got 92% of the delegates with 40% of the vote. Districts are not likely to vote all that differently from the rest of the state, so whoever wins the state is likely to win most or virtually all the districts.
93 posted on
03/14/2012 12:04:36 PM PDT by
JediJones
(The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
To: SoConPubbie
2/3rds of the remaining or about 850 delegates are in WTA states, WTA districts or districts which conditionally turn WTA if the winner gets 50%. This back half of the primary is FAR more WTA than the first half. The states are not as favorable to Romney, but vote-splitting from two strong conservative candidates will hand him maybe 100s of free delegates in these contests.
94 posted on
03/14/2012 12:07:36 PM PDT by
JediJones
(The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
To: SoConPubbie
Well, I am going out on a limb here and predicting that Ron Paul will come in 4th:)
100 posted on
03/14/2012 12:26:39 PM PDT by
katiedidit1
("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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