Posted on 03/16/2012 1:04:10 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
With the Southern primaries out of the way, the next big primary for binding delegate allocations will take place in Illinois on Tuesday. (Missouri holds another non-binding contest tomorrow, a caucus this time.) Two new polls show Mitt Romney with a significant but not insurmountable lead over Rick Santorum in the Land of Lincoln, with Newt Gingrich far back in third place. The local Fox affiliate has Romney up six points with three days to go:
Mitt Romney Leads Rick Santorum by Six Points in Exclusive Illinois Poll: MyFoxCHICAGO.com
An exclusive FOX Chicago News poll found a six point lead for Romney among those likely to vote in the March 20 presidential primary.
Romney had the support of 37 percent on Wednesday. Rick Santorum earned 31 percent of the vote.
Pollster We Ask America, based in Springfield, IL, contacted the 1,933 likely Republican voters who participated in our survey on Wednesday, accurate to within plus/minus 2.2 percentage points.
The third-largest group of voters chose Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, 10 percent were undecided and 8 percent voted for Ron Paul.
Despite all the recent focus on sexual reproductive issues, we found no gender gap, no difference between Republican men and women on these candidates.
Jobs and the economy were the issues at the forefront of voters’ minds during this poll. An overwhelming 60 percent of those called said these were the most important topics for their candidate to agree with their views.
Rasmussen found a wider lead of nine points for Romney in Illinois:
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has the lead in Illinois but lots of voters are still trying to decide in the final days before the state’s GOP Primary.
The first Rasmussen Reports poll in the state shows Romney at 41% and Rick Santorum at 32%. Trailing further back are Newt Gingrich at 14% and Ron Paul at seven percent (7%). (To see survey question wording, click here.)
However, if it was simply a choice between Romney and Santorum, the race becomes much closer. Without any other candidates in the mix, it’s Romney 48% and Santorum 44%.
Almost a third of voters (32%) could still change their minds, according to the poll, which Rasmussen sees as an opportunity for Santorum to make some inroads. Gingrich won’t be campaigning at all in the state, so Santorum could get some of Gingrich’s support to swing over to his banner in Gingrich’s absence. More than half of Newt’s voters say they can still change their minds. Santorum will need an overwhelming victory to outpace Romney in delegates, however, because Santorum didn’t get a full slate of delegates qualified for this direct election.
Fox didn’t find a gender gap in its polling, and the full-field poll in Rasmussen didn’t show one either. It does appear in the head-to-head matchup between Romney and Santorum, though; Romney barely edges Santorum among men 46/44 but wins a majority of women in Illinois, 50/43. Romney does better with Republicans against Santorum one-on-one (49/44) than independents (45/43). He loses by 15 among very conservative voters 39/54, but wins among somewhat conservative by double digits (51/40) and others by a wide 56/33 margin.
If the vote in Illinois comes down to late deciders, keep these figures in mind from full-field Rasmussen polling. Romney is perceived to be the strongest candidate by 50% of the respondents, as opposed to 24% for Santorum. More than three-quarters of voters (78%) think Romney would be very or somewhat likely to beat Obama in the general election, while only 54% think that about Santorum. That will probably count heavily when it comes to late-breaking deciders, so Santorum’s task in Illinois will be to give a positive explanation of how he has more strength to beat Obama.
Rasmussen also published its national poll in the GOP race today, and Romney leads Santorum 37/28, with Gingrich at 17%. That’s not much change from last week’s 39/27, nor even from two weeks ago when Romney led 40/24. All of those changes fall into the margin of error, which tends to indicate that the race has become rather static.
I’m surprised by this poll. I live near Chicago, and only about 10% of people, I know, support Romney.
RE: I’m surprised by this poll. I live near Chicago, and only about 10% of people, I know, support Romney.
You probably hang out with a lot of real conservatives.
Who really cares about Illinois? Be real, if 0bama doesn’t carry it legally in the election, as one of his many homes, the dims will make sure that enough dead people show up at the polls to give it to him.
Allow me to say it again. All depends on who the democrats want as the opponent of Obama.
In the Illinois primary, one walks into the polling place and is asked, “which ballot do you want, Republican or democrat”? With Obama having no opponent, democrats will request the republican ballot in huge numbers.
Of course it doesn't matter at general election time, it is a given that obama will win in Illinois but this is a primary election and those votes are extremely important to Gingrich, Santorum, Paul and Romney.
I wouldn't miss it for anything, it's the only time in this election when my vote will mean anything. I will not be voting for Romney or Paul or Romney.
(Yes, I know I said Romney twice, that was for emphasis!)
The Party faithful votes for whoever the Illinois Central Committee deems ‘most electable.’ Unbelievable, but true.
The Party faithful votes for whomever the Illinois Central Committee deems ‘most electable.’ Unbelievable, but true.
We will see this more and more in all the “open” primaries to come. Look for Santorum’s actual numbers to be about 6 to 8% higher than predicted.
Newt Gingrich at 14 percent,
Newt needs to tell these 14 percent to go to Santorum.
I live near Chicago, and I know that Illinois will be a swing state, in the general election, based on the 2010 election results. In that year, Illinois elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate, to replace a retiring Democrat. In 2010, IL Republicans gained four seats, in the U.S. House. Republicans gained seats, in the state senate and state house.
You may call him a Republican if you wish, I have other words for him.
In November, Illinois will go for Barak Obama.
It won’t even be close.
I agree with you, and I hope that fewer Illinois Republicans will vote according to the endorsement of the party leaders. In Aug. 2004, the IL GOP SCC nominated Alan Keyes, to the U.S. Senate race. In the general election, he got 27% of the vote. In Feb. 2006, many party leaders endorsed then-Treasurer Topinka, for governor. She won her primary, but, in the general election, she got 40% of the vote. In Jan. 2008, many party leaders endorsed Dr. Steve Sauerberg, for the U.S. Senate. He won his primary, but, in the general election, he got 29% of the vote.
These facts should show that, if Illinois republican leaders endorse a candidate, before the primary, the average republican primary voters should know that should vote for different candidates.
I have many words for Sen. Kirk. He was my congressman, but I never voted for him, since he’s more liberal than many Democrats.
In 2000, then-Gore probably thought that he would easily win his home state, but that didn’t happen.
In my last paragraph, I meant to say, “then-VP Gore.”
Illinois is the first of three DIRECT DELEGATE ELECTION primaries (which are like winner-take-all by district). Which candidate you vote for doesn't count for anything. You have to vote for the delegates directly on the ballot. The delegates are marked for which candidate they're supporting. Whichever 3 or 4 delegates in the district get the most votes are the winners. So if Romney's 3 or 4 delegates get 35% each, and no other delegates have that many votes, he wins all the district's delegates.
Sample 2012 Republican Primary Illinois Ballot
Therefore, vote-splitting is a real factor. If the delegate vote splits 34%-33%-33% and Romney gets the 34%, then he wins the delegates, the other candidates get nothing.
You must hang out with a lot of conservatives.
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