Posted on 03/24/2012 6:01:54 PM PDT by icwhatudo
When To Start Watching: Polls will close for the Louisiana Republican primary at 8 p.m. CDT (9 p.m. EDT). Results will begin to come in around 8:30 p.m. CDT.
What's At Stake: Twenty of the state's 46 delegates are up for grabs Saturday, divided proportionately among all candidates who receive more than 25 percent of the vote in the state. Louisiana hosts a closed primary, meaning only registered Republicans may vote for the four candidates in the GOP contest.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
OK, continuing this hypothetical math of a primary with pure winner-take-all rules, I calculated the final delegate total assuming that Rick and Mitt win the below states. Under those rules, the threshold to win the nomination would be 1,218 delegates. A pure WTA calculation with early WTA penalties removed would give Romney 1,274 delegates according to my calculations. If I took NM and DE away from Romney, he still would win under this system.
It kind of shows how the race is close enough that whoever the winner is is all going to come down to which guy the archaic rules end up favoring. Overall though, I think there is no way to stop Romney now unless he becomes so weakened that he actually loses in his northeastern and West Coast strongholds.
Rick:
TX - 155
PA - 72
NC - 55
MO - 52
IN - 46
KY - 45
WI - 42
AR - 36
NE - 35
WV - 31
SD - 28
MN - 26
Mitt:
CA - 172
NY - 95
NJ - 50
UT - 40
MD - 37
OR - 28
CT - 28
NM - 23
DC - 19
RI - 19
DE - 17
Romney: 1,274
Santorum: 1,032
Gingrich: 126
Paul: 0
It looks like turnout in Louisiana was up 15-20%. Ohio looks like it was up as well. I saw some analysis on a Demon-rat site that was saying “not so fast,” Republican turnout isn’t as down as people think, and is more or less flat, so the Obama-ites shouldn’t get overconfident. They accounted for some differences like some states moving from primaries to the much less attended caucuses, where people have to take a big block of time out of their day to listen to speeches.
Shhhhhh.....
We would hate for the FOX Neocon Channel (FNC) do any actual reporting on that, wouldn’t we ? Also, we wouldn’t ruin Drudge’s good time.
:)
Santorum picked up between $3 and 5 million in the days following AL and MS. There were reports that he had the most cash on hand... for the moment. I know up here in the Midsouth, Santorum was running positive ads (what few there were) when he did not hit Romney or Obama, while Newt’s PAC and Santorum savaged him.
Well gee, guess the fact that he was doing her in his office while impeaching Clinton doesn’t matter. But yeah, I have moved from Newt being 1A to 1B.
A large part of it is Newt supporters attacking for the slightest criticism of their God candidate.
Pray for America
PS. If you don’t think his hot young wife is hurting his chances with the female vote, I have a stimulus plan you may want to buy.
Anecdotal to be sure, but my experience here in Louisiana was some pretty high enthusiasm for Rick. Even a handful of black conservatives I know from work and church were pretty gung-ho for Santorum.
It made me angry when Huckabee dismissed the LA voters as social conservatives, who are more concerned about abortion and the freedom of religion, as if they are too stupid to understand the issues of the economy or Obamacare.
The LA election was held the day after the anniversary of Obamacare and Huckabee and the Judge didn’t deem it important enough to consider that the threat of Obamneycare could have played a significant role in the election.
Gee, I guess the fact Rick - while ‘talking’ pro life and marriage - campaigned and supported the ONLY candidate that was pro abortion and pro homo and anti-traditional marriage and said this pro abortion/pro homo candidate - the worst of the worst candidate - was conservative. Imagine that - Rick lying while pushing scum on America when it suits him. Who wudda thunk it.
Talk about hypocrisy - his values in the gutter when it serves him. He’s a flip flopper/same as Mitt - just tell the idiots what they want to hear as they are too dumb to figure it out for themselves.
You ain’t too good at selling anything and that a 46 year old is suddenly a hot young thing. You fail big time as you carry the MSM water as they were able to make a pawn out of you.
Since you are hell bent on gossiping about the candidate’s wives - Rick’s wife was a hot young thing - and a ‘kept’ woman in her twenties and for six years lived off of blood money of aborted babies. An abortionist, 40 years older than her - and living with him for her meal ticket. Talk about low.
Now go pump your stimulus plan elsewhere - you got nothing.
To deny Romney the nomination Santorum must win WI, and it would be optimal for him to deny Romney a majority in NY (thus making it proportional) and win several districts there, thus evening the delegate count. This nomination is going to be so close that states like DE could help decide it. Combining denying a majority in NY with winning DE will give Santorum enough of a lift to fight it out to California, where he won’t need to win, but he would need to hold Romney down to around 100-120 delegates or so. Blowing Romney out of the water in places like TX, NC, and KY are also very important in this scheme.
Also to be followed closely are the state convention delegate selections. If the anti-Romney’s unite, Romney might lose upwards of 90 delegates from his current count. WA is especially important on that front. If he gets denied those, Not Romney will have more wiggle room, but they would still need to deny him delegates in primary states.
Thankfully, the May calendar is so heavily conservative that it should give Santorum enough momentum to steal a lot of delegates in CA. During May, Santorum needs to basically camp in CA while sending out his surrogates and some ad money to the conservative states during that time to run up the margins.
Then, we fight on to Tampa.
Let’s get this straight, you lecture me about the obvious reason women are not voting for Gingrich because I am trashing his wife, then you trash Santorum’s wife. My problem is I like both of them and I speak the truth.
Women are not voting for Gingrich because he cheated on his wife with his hot young blonde. You can attack the messenger all you want but the facts won’t change.
I was going to vote for him but you and your Gingrich thug buddies have convinced me otherwise.
Pray for America
You mean like Scuzzaflava, that pro-choice candidate?
Another lowly comparison? A presidential candidate vs. a small town candidate. You keep failing the more you dig.
I see you can’t give you stimulus plan away much less sell it!
YOU are the one would brought up a candidate’s wife!! KEEP IT HONEST!! I never looked at them - my candidate has enough going for himself - I don’t NEED to look at what some would perceive as flaws of their wives. How small of you and your candidate that you feel the need to do it - the ‘self righteous’ in action.
I wasn’t trashing her - just bringing you the info that you obviously overlooked as you focused on Newt’s ‘young hot wife’.
‘Some hot young thing’ - and you say you like her? LOL!! NO ONE would see her like that except one of a jealous and condemning spirit. More so, since she’s 46! LOL!!
Give it up and grow up! Mature voters focus on the candidates. Not grammar school gossipy ‘self righteous’ gutter like tactics.
You win, you have convinced me to vote for Rick. Nice work, I still like both of them but his supporters are some of the nastiest people on FR.
Pray for America
Yes, I sold you the stimulus plan you were peddling.
And it's good - something you wanted all along. You are drawn to what you are. The self righteous candidate.
And I'm drawn to who I am - Go Conservative NEWT, the 'WeThePeople' PATRIOT candidate!!
I was having a hard time with that decision but your hatred of Christians made it much easier. It is supporters like you who is sending him down in flames.
Maybe you can go on the WI boards and help Rick out? Your pride is going to ensure Mitt the nomination. He should withdraw for the good of the Conservative movement.
Pray for America
You have already shown you fail - time and time again. Yet you continue as an unteachable spirit is very needy. Go dig with someone that’s interested.
| Presidential Nominee -- Republican Party All 4267 precincts reporting |
|||
| Michele Bachmann (R) | 0.33% | 622 | |
| Randy Crow (R) | 0.10% | 186 | |
| Newt Gingrich (R) | 15.91% | 29655 | |
| Jon Huntsman (R) | 0.13% | 242 | |
| Ron Paul (R) | 6.15% | 11460 | |
| Rick Perry (R) | 0.51% | 955 | |
| Charles "Buddy" Roemer (R) | 1.18% | 2203 | |
| Mitt Romney (R) | 26.69% | 49749 | |
| Rick Santorum (R) | 48.99% | 91305 | |
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.