One more change though, that hypothetical WTA delegate count still had delegates removed from the penalized states who did WTA too early this year. With those penalized delegates put back in, the counts become the below. Romney is helped out a lot by removal of that penalty. I think that change would raise the threshold to get the nomination to 1,127 delegates:
Romney: 746
Santorum: 409
Gingrich: 126
Paul: 0
Well it’s lopsided at the moment because a bunch of liberal/blue states have voted so far. In May, WV, NC, AR, KY, and TX all vote, and Rick is poised to carry them all.
It may not matter however. WI is virtually do or die for Santorum. If he doesn’t stop Romney here, it won’t matter how good he does anywhere else. He needs to be camped out here between now and April 3rd. If he goes to MD, he should be very specific where he goes (Frederick, Hagerstown, Cumberland, Bel Air/Aberdeen, Salisbury, Ocean City). MD is a waste because Montgomery County is 1000% certain to go Romney and big. I don’t want to see Rick anywhere there when his time will be much better spent in WI. Carrying the 1st and 6th CD’s in MD will be just as much as a victory (especially the 1st) and we’ll see if his performance on the Eastern Shore warrants putting DE in play for him on Apr 24.
Looking at the Demographics, WI is much better suited to Rick than IL was. Rick outperformed Huckabee in IL by nearly doubling his performance, and Huckabee managed 35% in WI last time.