If gas remains where it is or God forbid goes to 5 or 6, Obama is toast. The economy will tank and inflation will keep rocketing north. Printing fiat money is causing all of this.
Everything you're saying makes sense to a rational person. However, most voters will vote based on emotion and Romney is not trustworthy or likeable. Also, the libs will blame Congress and especially conservatives for doing nothing. The media will reinforce this view and it will only be conservative talk radio that counters.
The Pub party has negated the passion of the Tea Party and with redistricting the more out spoken conservatives are being pushed into tougher districts. Obama will get 98% of the Black vote. Obama will get 65-70% of the Hispanic vote. If Obama gets a majority of single White women and a majority of Roman Catholics he wins.