I think you meant +/- *not* more than 10 seats. And I agree with you assessment: redistricting will be a wash in terms of seats switching partisan lean, but it will result in many of the 2010 GOP pickups becoming harder for the RATs to win back. I actually think that +/- 5 is more likely than the odds of either party picking up 10 net seats.
Yes, I meant NOT more than 10 seats either way. I was gonna say 5 and that’s the likelihood but I think 10 is the limit. If it was a bigger change than that I would be surprised.