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It is worth noting that other Republican politicians who are more effective speakers and more charismatic than Romney, or for that matter, his three competitors, stayed out of the race. Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan, and Jeb Bush come to mind. Of the four remaining candidates, Gingrich is by far the most charismatic, the least gaffe prone, and, while he has a few positions he regrets, he does not have either the flip-flopper image of Romney nor the way off the mainstream quotes of Santorum or Paul. However, Gingrich carries way more personal and other baggage than the other three combined.

But $4-5/gallon gas, 8%+ unemployment (perhaps really more than 10%), trillion plus deficits, overly aggressive regulation, and overplaying the race card may seal Obama's fate even if Romney is less than stellar. Unlike Dole and McCain, or for that matter, Kerry and Dukakis, he does not have a day job to fall back on. Romney seems far more goal driven than any of the past losers, and has very strong financial backing. Independents and upper middle income whites are slipping away from Obama, as are non-black youth and Hispanics. The relative strength of Paul's campaign this year (usually 3rd or 4th, but roughly doubling his popular vote from 2008 levels) is evidence of Generation Y and younger Generation X voters' disenchantment with the President. Obama's support of Trayvon Martin vs. the part-Hispanic, and Latin American appearing, George Zimmerman, will not play well with that voter bloc. It may be as big a strategic mistake as was the 2000 deporation of Elian Gonzales,

The key for Romney is to nominate a strong and articulate movement conservative (and young, no Dick Cheney or Joe Biden) for the VP slot, keep Ron Paul and his crowd from actively supporting the Libertarians, and play hardball in states like NC, FL, OH, MO, and PA, to lessen the impact of Democrat ballot box dirty tricks.