Replies

Nope. Exactly the same odds.

Same odds of hitting the big ticket - yup.

But, when you select a portion of the viable numbers, and wheel them - you are using chaos theory to your advantage. If I'm buying 250 tickets, and there is no pattern - then every ticket is 'random'.

However, if I opt to pick a subset of numbers, and wheel the combinations - the odds drop dramatically. Thus, the primary strategy is different. We are 'hoping' to win the big ticket - but we are playing on winning a bunch of smaller prizes; with the odds working to help sustain the 'wheel' for future drawings.

In practice, we found that we only had to pay into our wheel about 85% of the time - approximately 15% of the time, our winnings paid for the following weeks lottery.

I stick by my original statement. By picking from a smaller pool of numbers you are more likely to lose completely in a week with an occasional week where you win on multiple sets of numbers. You may be getting some memory bias because the occasional week which had a positive payout is more memorable than if you had evenly distributed numbers and had to remember all the single $2 or $3 prizes which don't even cover all the tickets you bought.

In practice, we found that we only had to pay into our wheel about 85% of the time - approximately 15% of the time, our winnings paid for the following weeks lottery.

Interesting figure, 15%. It's pretty close to the 10.3% payback ratio on Ohio's Megamillions (I think states can pick their own prizes below the jackpot) of the prizes below $10,000. Other lotteries will be different, but I wouldn't be surprised if yours has a 15% average payout on the low prizes. Spread them out and you don't remember them. Bunch you numbers and you remember the times they cover next week's tickets.