“...I think the GOPe elite have already written off the White House for 2012.”
No, they have not.
The GOP isn’t expecting to win with conservatives participating in huge numbers this time around, and certainly not with those who are passionately pro-life.
BHO2 has so thoroughly demolished the Democratic Party’s white working class base this gives the GOP a chance this year to take the Congress - both House and Senate - and the White House. Independents, white working-class Democrats, and Conservative “anybody but Obama” voters can carry the GOP this national election.
I believe the GOPe have the numbers to back this up.
Don’t get the idea I like this, ‘cause I do not.
I agree with you. The GOP-E have said as much, that they for sure want the Senate and to hold the House, (and secure their own paycheck and entrenched power) but seemingly feared a conservative nominee would risk all that.
The Republican Party is despised by all the Republicans I know. If Newt were younger and wanted to, he has the proven stature to have mustered a Third Party of consequence, given his record, experience and enormous accomplishment.
The GOP is certainly not writing off conservatives. They are willing to write off a certain segment of social conservative voters because they believe catering to them just ends up alienating more moderates/independents than it's worth. The GOP is simply not going to tailor a national campaign to people who believe contraception is evil and that we need a war on porn. They will try to appeal to those voters on other issues, but they know they will lose some and never get the kind of turnout among that demographic that a Pat Robertson, Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum can get.
BHO2 has so thoroughly demolished the Democratic Party’s white working class base this gives the GOP a chance this year to take the Congress - both House and Senate - and the White House. Independents, white working-class Democrats, and Conservative “anybody but Obama” voters can carry the GOP this national election.
I think you are way too optimistic. I think government dependence is so high and so accepted now that most of those on the government dole will vote for whatever candidate is most likely to keep the gravy train rolling. Once upon a time when the economy sucked, people were inclined to give the other guy a chance. Now it is all about voting for who can keep the Obama bucks coming. I hope I am wrong, but I think Romney is a poor candidate so my hunch is he will lose narrowly. Santorum would have lost in a massive landslide that would have taken our House majority down with it. Hopefully next cycle we have a better slate of candidates.