Welcome to FR, NCC. Good analysis but there are a couple of other points to add:
1. The biggest cause of Eves’ defeat was the first budget after he became Premier in which he cancelled a tax cut and ramped up spending. Harris Tories stayed home in droves; if you compare the popular vote and voter turnout between the 1999 and 2003 elections, you’ll notice that the drop in Tory support was almost equal to to drop in turnout.
2. One of the factors that turned off many conservatives in 2007 was the fact that Tory was once CEO of Rogers Communications, Canada’s most entrenched crony capitalist organization. His entire career was spent currying government favour for his company at the expense of competitors and consumers.
Thanks for the warm welcome, and for providing some more perspective on the situation. While I consider myself reasonably informed on Canadian politics, admittedly I don’t always pick up on the local nuance. So I appreciate your additional insight.