I think you got something there. Now it depends October surprise for what side?
.... In war, too, the discretionary power of the Executive is extended;... its influence in dealing out offices, honors, and emoluments is multiplied;... and all the means of seducing the minds, are added to those of subduing the force, of the people.....
..... The same malignant aspect in republicanism may be traced in the inequality of fortunes, and the opportunities of fraud,... 'growing out of a state of war',... and in the degeneracy of manners and of morals, engendered by both...... No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare."...... "source: "Political Observations" April 20, 1795......JAmes Madison